Midwife of Peace
Pull down the safety harness and hold on tight: the Middle East is setting off on a new rollercoaster ride in search of stability in a region that only knows peace as an exception. The brakes have been released by a new US government that has learned from its predecessors' mistakes and is ready to attempt the almost impossible: to finally create peace in the Middle East.
There are already signs that the process is gathering speed. Washington wants to upgrade its relations to Syria. Relations between the USA and Egypt are back on track. But most importantly, the guns on the Israeli-Palestinian front have fallen silent. It is more than clear that Gaza and the West Bank are longing for normality. Life seems to be back in fashion again – death is out.
The demonstrations changed Iran
The backdrop to a new round of negotiations in the Middle East is of course the events in the wake of Iran's presidential elections. The strength of the protests against the regime has been a severe blow to radical forces in the region. Many observers wondered whether what they were seeing was the beginning of the end of the Iranian theocracy or the end of a reformist beginning.
While some were convinced it was the first step towards toppling the regime, others believed the reform movement had neither the strength nor the patience required, in view of the brutal suppression of the protests. For the time being at least, the conservatives appear to have consolidated their position in power.
US President Barack Obama has the dubious honour to his name of having helped the hardliners out of a precarious situation. His rather late but nevertheless very clear warning that every people has a right to freely express political opinions played into the regime's hands, giving President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the spiritual leader Ali Khamenei the perfect opportunity to fan the flames of "external interference" and club down the protests.
But whatever the hardliners claimed, they have sustained massive losses in these elections. The basis of legitimacy for a regime that claims to act on the direct instructions of God has suffered serious damages. And now that regime is facing a dilemma: should it seek to improve relations with the USA, combating discontent within Iranian society? Or should it make up lost ground with fresh revolutionary fervour?
It may not be the first time the Iranian regime has faced these questions; but the demonstrations have most certainly changed the country irreversibly. A better image means better opportunities.
A window of opportunity
The important thing is that as long as Iran is fully occupied with getting a grip on its domestic problems, it will have to take a back seat in the region. This is a window of opportunity for a settlement in the Middle East. Barack Obama at least is attempting to revitalise the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process on several fronts.
In contrast to the governments before him, he is trying to have an open ear for all conflict parties. Obama is demanding a complete freeze on settlement construction from Israel, and a long overdue process of normalisation with Israel from the Arab side. To top it all, Obama has formulated a vision for peace in the region that all those involved could live with.
Nevertheless, it would be hard to claim there were any indicators of progress as yet. Neither are the Israelis showing any signs of freezing their settlement expansions in the West Bank, nor are the Arab states moving recognisably towards normalisation. Cairo would appear prepared to create much friendlier relations to Israel, yet it will do nothing of the sort before the settlements are frozen.
Saudi Arabia in turn is prepared to encourage all other Arab states to normalise relations with Israel, but will wait until the last moment before doing so itself.
Addressing the conflict parties directly
Yet Obama still has a number of cards up his sleeve. His speech in Cairo showed how effective it is to address the conflict parties directly. The president is clearly thinking of speaking directly to the Israeli public, to raise their willingness for compromise on the settlements issue. The respect that the USA has now regained will come to his aid.
Gone are the days when a US government could divide up the Europeans into "old" and "new" depending on the degree of allegiance they were prepared to pay to Washington. Both individual European states and the EU are in agreement with Washington: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has gone on far too long and is damaging western interests.
Japan, Russia, China and India too wish for an end to this permanent state of conflict. Yet relations to Egypt are extremely important for the efforts of the USA. Not least for this reason was President Mubarak among the first heads of state to receive a phone call from the new man in the White House.
Intensive efforts towards cooperation
Ever since signing its peace treaty with Israel in 1979, Cairo has been working on a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. And although relations to Israel have been far from free from crises, the two countries have succeeded in resolving their differences amicably.
During the Gaza war in the winter of 2008/2009, Israel and Egypt joined forces to bring about a ceasefire and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Egypt has been making intensive efforts towards cooperation between the feuding Palestinian parties Hamas and Fatah, campaigning with the Jordanian government towards a peace treaty between the Arab world and Israel.
There can of course be no guarantee of success for the Egyptian and American attempts. Yet even though players in the region rarely miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity, the chances for a peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict are now looking better than ever before.
Syria as a key player
A key issue for success is how and whether Syria could be involved in the efforts towards peace. Washington has registered several successes on this front, re-establishing diplomatic relations with Syria. And now that there is a platform for talks with the country, Damascus and Washington can take care of stabilising the political system in Lebanon together – especially since Hezbollah failed to gain the majority it had hoped for in the recent parliamentary elections.
The fact that Hamas is currently holding back and showing some willingness to cooperate in the talks for a government of national unity, moderated by Egypt, is also due to Syrian influence.
The second "key to peace" lies in Israel's hand: the possibility of peace is coming closer. And now Israel has to decide whether it wants to be part of the Middle East or remain an outsider. Under no circumstances can it become an accepted part of the region at the cost of the Palestinians. Neither of these two countries – Syria or Israel – is an uncomplicated partner. But it cannot be impossible to get them both on board, provided Obama continues to pay a large part of his attention to the Middle East and does not allow himself to be lead astray.
Abdel-Monem Said
© Internationale Politik / Qantara.de 2009
Abdel-Monem Said is the Director of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategy Studies in Cairo.
Qantara.de
Barack Obama's Speech to the Islamic World
"The President Has Spoken; Now We Are Waiting for Action!"
Obama touched Muslim hearts with his speech in Cairo – but now the Arab world is waiting for action to follow on from his words. Amira El Ahl listened to Obama's speech at the University of Cairo
The Future of the Two-state Solution in the Middle East
Reviving a Fata Morgana?
US President Barack Obama is currently in the Middle East and is generally expected to canvas for a revival of the two-state solution. Bettina Marx investigates whether this concept still has a future or not
Commentary by Avi Primor
The Key to Peace Lies in Damascus
IIt's now official: Israel and Syria are holding indirect peace talks. A peace agreement between the two countries could break Iran's dangerous influence in the region, says Avi Primor, former Israeli Ambassador to Germany