Doubts about the Stability of the Compromise Are Justified

After five days of negotiations in Qatar which, at times, appeared to be hopeless, representatives of the rivaling political factions in Lebanon agreed on a compromise early Wednesday morning (21 May 2008) that is intended to lead the country out of the political crisis which has lasted a year and a half. The key points of the agreement are changes in the electoral law, reapportionment of electoral districts in Beirut, and the election of a president, perhaps even this week.

Still unresolved is the issue of disarming the Shiite Hezbollah opposition, which recently attacked Sunnis and Druze in Beirut and other parts of the country for the first time, thus risking a new civil war.

It is more than questionable whether the Qatar agreement will last, since, as so often in the past, it does not solve the country's central problems but provides only cosmetic changes. One of the main problems continues to be the fragmentation of Lebanon into eighteen different religious groups, most of which are making strong demands for political rights.

Lebanon's fragile political system

The largest and, by now, probably the most important group is the Shiites. Traditionally disadvantaged and long neglected and ignored as a poor, uneducated rural population, the Shiites are demanding their share of the power with increasing clarity. That is all the easier for them, since they have Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran.

​​Hezbollah, the "Party of God," was created by Iran in 1982 as an armed militia, but in the meantime is also the backbone of the political opposition against the coalition government led by Fouad Siniora – a Sunni – which is, in turn, backed by the West and the most important Arab states.

The recent armed conflicts threatened to develop into an open power struggle between the Shiites and Sunnis and, if the situation had escalated further, would have jeopardized Lebanon's entire fragile political system, which is based on a long-outdated proportional representation between the most important religious groups. The system was established by the former French mandate in order to reinforce the dominant position of the Maronite Christians, who were closely allied with the French.

Lebanon's religious factions

At the beginning of the 1940s, the Christians and Sunnis agreed in a "National Pact" that the president would be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim. Other public offices – even in the army – were distributed proportionally, and candidates in the various electoral districts were also constituted on this basis.

The result of this system, which is based on a census from the 1930s, is that many Lebanese regard themselves first as members of their particular religious denomination, then as Lebanese. In order to assert and defend their claims, they also indiscriminately enter into alliances and friendships of convenience which have little to do with feelings and reason, but a great deal to do with opportunism.

The Christians, who referred to themselves as the "true Lebanese," were generally aligned with the West, at times even with Israel. Today, some of them are part of the government camp, others are looking after their own interests with Hezbollah.

The Sunnis were formerly protagonists of (Sunni) pan-Arabism, supported the PLO, and were also allied with Syria, but today they oppose the influence of Damascus. The Druze, in turn, laid claim to an almost autonomous region of Lebanon (the Chouf Mountains), then joined forces with Damascus, only to reject it in the governing coalition today.

No one wants a civil war

The Shiites did not begin to become politically active until the mid-1970s, under their then leader, Moussa Sadr, who was probably murdered by the Libyan regime. Only later did they come under the influence of Syria and, in particular, Iran. At first, the Shiites deplored the fact that south Lebanon was drawn into the conflict with Israel by the PLO, but Hezbollah has long since declared its solidarity with the Palestinian Rejectionist Front, which is based in Damascus.

Hezbollah has been demanding the resignation of the Siniora government or, alternatively, a return to the government for a year and a half, although it insists on veto power, which it would not be entitled to in terms of sheer numbers, even if it continues its alliance with the Christians around ex-General Michel Aoun on a long-term basis.

In Qatar, the leaders attempted to find a solution to this messy situation. It is doubtful, however, whether the agreement will be lasting, since it does not solve any of the old problems. Perhaps it will at least give Lebanon a breathing spell, though. The alternative is civil war, and no one wants that.

Peter Philipp

© Deutsche Welle / Qantara.de 2008

Translated from the German by Phyllis Anderson

Qantara.de

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