Autocrat or Peacemaker?

​​ Wise peacemaker for some, dictator for others – the Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak is, to some extent, both. A sort of minor evil for the West, which prefers to do business with a "wise dictator" rather than with an "erratic tyrant".

Mubarak assumed power in 1981 under dramatic circumstances. The scene indelibly marked the history of the Middle East as, during a military parade, militant Islamists assassinated the then president Anwar Sadat. The reason for the assassination was the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, which Sadat had signed two years earlier.

Mubarak, Sadat's vice president, was standing next to him and escaped an assured death as if by miracle. This moment embodies the psychological foundations of the Mubarak era in both foreign and domestic politics.

Foreign policy agenda

​​ With regard to foreign affairs, Mubarak has exercised continuity. He is aware that the real successes can only be realised through dialogue. After all, this had made it possible for Egypt to retrieve all occupied territories from Israel in 1967 through negotiations. As a negotiator, Mubarak is pursuing peace between the Israelis and Palestinians using the same tactic.

The key is the dialogue, says Mubarak: "We must do everything to bring the two parties together. They need to get together, whether they want to or not. We must find a solution; we have to break the vicious circle and change the perspectives with aid or initiatives from Egypt and other countries. There is no other way."

A moderate voice, then, respected in western capitals, which see in Mubarak a factor for stability in the region and a reliable ally against extremism. The country also profits from it, for after Israel, Egypt is second in line to receive economic and military aid from the United States.

Detractors see him as a "traitor"

From a domestic politics point of view, the alliance with the West brings difficulties. His detractors are not afraid of calling him a traitor. And since 1981, Mubarak has been ruling the country with an iron hand and with Emergency-Law rule, officially in order to counter the religious fundamentalism that deeply penetrates Egyptian society.

Indeed, the officially prohibited Muslim Brothers are the most important oppositional power and control one fifth of parliament, where they are represented as "independents".

​​ They are regularly subject to police assaults, which are heavily criticised by human rights organisations. But this repression hasn't prevented the Muslim Brothers from increasing their influence on Egyptian society.

In fact, even the governmental censorship bodies regularly censor books of secular intellectuals for religious reasons. "Un-Islamic" scientists are harassed; homosexuals are persecuted. The streets of Egypt are defined more than ever by headscarves, and Islamism is experiencing a boom.

No alternatives?

The secular powers feel harried and deserted by the West, as Georges Ishaq, cofounder of the protest movement Kifaja – "Enough" explains: "Why does the West and the US support despotic regimes? It has been proven that this support damages the democratic powers in Arab societies and that totalitarianism profits from it. This is the question I want to pose to the West, why the support? Why do they only talk about freedom and democracy in the studies and reports? It's all just talk."

​​ Mubarak uses the danger of extremism cleverly, against the West as well as in regards to the liberal and secular opposition, in order to suggest that there are no alternatives to his regime. The opposition, however, thinks that the western support hinders the development of democracy and human rights in Egypt.

Andreas Jacobs, director of the foreign office of the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation in Cairo says the following about these allegations: "Of course I understand the opposition, but unfortunately the democratic powers in Egypt especially are very weak, very tattered and also not united. And many opposing powers are anything but democratic. In this way, it is hard to do anything right when it comes to Egypt."

A "dynasty solution" for Egypt?

Mubarak is now 81 years old. For years there has been much speculation about his successor. There are many indications of a "dynasty solution" like in Syria, which the Arabic media calls "Gumlukia", literally "repu-dynasty".

Mubarak is discreetly preparing his son Jamal to become his successor. Currently Jamal is planning director of the National Democratic Party (NDP) and on the eve of his father's visit to the States, gave his first big interview in Washington. There, however, the question of successor was carefully avoided, adding even more fuel to the speculations.

Hassan Znined

© Deutsche Welle / Qantara.de 2009

Qantara.de

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