All Quiet in Paradise?

​​The consequences of the attack on the island's economic and social structure were immense. The resulting economic changes caused turnover in many sectors to plummet; the tourism industry being the worst hit of all.

Above all, it was the small and medium-sized businesses and hotels, and those businesses that worked and were dependent on the tourism sector that had to fight for their economic survival in the wake of the attacks.

Recovery

Today, however, we know that the social system on the island withstood the economic slump without any noteworthy social unrest. Family and village networks, and the religious beliefs of many of the Balinese people played a vital role in dealing peacefully with the catastrophe.

After the attacks, numerous aid organisations dealt with the needs of those affected by the explosion. The aid promised by the Indonesian government, on the other hand, came – for the most part – to nothing. The reasons for the ineffectiveness of this aid are numerous: insufficient organisation, weak leadership, the lack of a concept, and coordination and communication difficulties.

Tourism on the increase

Despite all of this, the tourism sector in Bali is recovering. The Indonesian Minister for Culture and Tourism, I Gede Ardika, has announced that tourism on the island grew 18 per cent in the first three months of the year.

He is confident that the 4.4 million visitors that were expected to visit Indonesia in 2004 will be exceeded by at least 600,000. In July alone, 148,177 people arrived in Bali from abroad. This is an all-time record.

It would appear that the memory of the Bali bombings has been pushed to the back of tourists' minds by the almost daily reports of terrorism and natural disasters from other parts of the world. In short, it no longer seems to be a reason not to go on holidays to Bali.

Mistakes made in combating terrorism

Nevertheless, the security situation in Indonesia has not got any better; a fact clearly illustrated by the attack on the J.P. Marriott Hotel in August 2003 and the bomb blast at the Australian Embassy on 9 September 2004.

Western targets are still at risk from Indonesian terrorists. Until such time as the politicians take consistent and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and start to tackle its causes, this situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.

Preventative measures include not only the persecution of those directly responsible for the terrorist attacks and the ideological leaders pulling the strings behind the scenes, but also the elimination of social and economic injustice, which is generally considered to be a breeding ground for terrorism.

The fight against terrorism in Indonesia is exacerbated by the negative influence of corruption, which pervades all areas of society. President Megawati's weak government was unable to guarantee social stability and religious peace. It remains to be seen whether the newly elected president, General Yudhoyono, will be able to change the overall situation for the better.

Uncertain future

In an era characterised by active international terrorist networks, and political and economic instability, it is difficult to predict what the future holds for Indonesia's tourism industry.

It is unlikely that visitor figures would recover in the way they have done over the past two years in the event of another attack on the scale of 12 October 2002.

This is why it is necessary to take preventative measures and draw up contingency plans for possible future attacks. To date, however, very few structures are in place that would allow such a policy to be implemented.

Nevertheless, this does not change the fact that tourists still consider Bali to be a very attractive holiday destination. In a visitor survey conducted on the holiday island, 97 per cent of those surveyed said that they intended to return to Bali again for another holiday.

Environmental protection is the priority

The same survey also arrived at the surprising conclusion that tourism on the island would suffer more sustainably from a polluted environment than it did from the terrorist attack of 2002. Nine months after the attack, the tourists surveyed said that pollution of the environment was much more worrying than the uncertain security situation.

All we can do is hope that the Balinese gods will continue to smile on their island. After all, despite all the aforementioned imponderables and faults, Bali remains a magical place. Anyone who has heard the sound of the Gamelan and seen the moonlight reflected in the dark mirrors of the paddy fields is helpless; they have no choice: they have to return to Bali.

Alexander Kesper

© Qantara.de 2004

Translation from German: Aingeal Flanagan