Pakistan Plays Waiting Game

​​It was supposed to be the dramatic introduction to a triumphant election campaign; Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) had brought thousands of supporters to Karachi from all over the country to welcome the party leader back after eight years away from home.

Her political opponents were to receive a clear message: this is the woman whose party will win the parliamentary election at the beginning of next year; who will then be head of government for the third time.

But events took a different course; after hours of festivities during Bhutto's journey from the airport to the city centre, a suicide bomber set off an explosion. Bhutto herself remained unscathed, but 139 people were killed and more than 500 injured. It was the bloodiest attack in Pakistan's history.

Since then a grim joke has been doing the rounds. Bhutto's demand, "remove poverty," has become "remove poor people"; the PPP supporters killed in the attack were mostly impoverished people from rural areas, bussed in to Karachi by the party and given a few rupees for food as thanks for cheering.

Critics, such as Benazir Bhutto's niece Fatima, accuse her of deliberately risking these people's lives; despite death threats her aunt insisted on going ahead with the "grand show" and the "personal theatre" says 25-year-old Fatima: "She bears a responsibility for these deaths and for these injuries."

Popularity explosion

However it is unlikely that the bomb attack will do Benazir Bhutto any political damage, quite the opposite: "The tragedy simply underlines her demand for decisive action against violence and extremism in Pakistan," says Ghazi Salahuddin of The News International, one of Pakistan's big English newspapers.

Before the attack Bhutto's PPP were at only 28% in the opinion polls, in second place behind Nawaz Sharif, also twice previously prime minister. Following the attack, Salahuddin is certain, the order will be reversed.

The PPP's core voters are the broad mass of the underclass, religious minorities and women, who Bhutto promises to represent. There are also voters with a moderately liberal worldview who cannot find a political home anywhere else.

"For them, there is simply no other choice," says Ghazi Salahuddin. "The PPP is the only party in Pakistan which stands for pluralism, popularity and protection for minorities."

The voters are clearly forgetting that Benazir Bhutto has already failed as head of government twice, and is alleged to have become rich at the expense of the state.

She escaped various accusations of corruption eight years ago with her flight into exile. She flew back to Karachi only after reaching an agreement with president Musharraf at the beginning of October; according to the "National Reconciliation Ordinance", all proceedings against her are to be dropped. Other politicians are also likely to benefit from the ordinance.

Only Bhutto's arch rival, Nawaz Sharif, who would also very much like to become prime minister for the third time, will still be called to account for his misdeeds, thanks to a particular clause. Make of that what you will.

Way cleared for change

Thus the way has been cleared for a political constellation which members of the US government have also been unashamedly pushing for: Benazir Bhutto as prime minister, Musharraf as head of state. Washington hopes for effective action in the fight against terror and extremism in Pakistan.

This is urgently needed. Newspapers report daily, from the north-western border province and the tribal areas on the border to Afghanistan, on the conditions prevailing in the neighbouring country under the Taleban: music shops, and hairdressers where men might have their beards shaved off are being blown up.

​​Head teachers are telling girls only to come to school wearing a burqa, following bomb-threats from fundamentalists. And a few weeks ago militant forces kidnapped around 300 Pakistani soldiers who were to have advanced on the Taleban. The army has still not yet succeeded in freeing the men.

Most importantly, the head of the Al Qaida terrorist network, Osama bin Laden, is believed to be hiding in the Pakistani borderland.

Benazir Bhutto has gone out on a limb here, and stated that as head of government, she would even allow American attacks to take place on Pakistani soil in order to capture bin Laden.

Musharraf is firmly against foreign military operations in his country. But it is not only this difference of opinion which makes it unlikely that Bhutto and Musharraf could work together successfully. Neither of them is accustomed to sharing power.

Real democracy?

By the middle of November Musharraf allegedly intends to leave his post as head of the army and pave the way, as civilian president for a "real" democracy, as he puts it.

But things could turn out very differently. Should the high court decide that Musharraf is ineligible to stand for presidential election again at the beginning of October, the 64-year-old may play his final trump: find an excuse to declare a state of emergency, postpone the election and remain president and chief of army staff, without Benazir Bhutto at his side. At the moment anything is possible in Pakistan.

Anette Meisters

© Qantara.de 2007

Translated from the German by Steph Morris

Qantara.de

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