An Irreconcilable Political Situation

Shortly before the parliamentary elections this Sunday, the parties remain entrenched in their positions. Turkish society is divided along lines of political conflict, and the opposition's nationalistic rhetoric is coming across loud and clear. Ömer Erzeren reports from Istanbul

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's governing 'Justice and Development Party' (AKP) hopes to win an absolute majority of seats in the parliamentary elections on July 22nd. In the 2002 elections the party gained 34% of the vote and was able to claim almost two thirds of the parliamentary mandates.

The focus of the AKP's election campaign is Turkey's economic development and the resulting high growth rate. Erdogan is promising to maintain continuity in governmental policy.

The AKP's political failures

But the conservative Islamic party is in a weakened position. It did not seek a compromise with the opposition during the presidential election in April. The opposition referred the result to the constitutional court, which found that the AKP candidate, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül, had failed to win the required two-thirds majority.

A declaration circulated by the General Staff of the Military on its website accused the government of undermining laicism – the separation of state and religion stipulated by the constitution. Mass demonstrations in many of Turkey's big cities, primarily by women and the urban middle classes, were targeted directly at the government, which was accused of having a secret 'Islamist agenda'.

Furthermore, an increasing number of soldiers and civilians were killed by mines and attacks by the Kurdish PKK (Kurdistan People's Party) in the summer months. Cabinet members were booed at the funerals of fallen soldiers.

Vote hunting with nationalistic issues

The 'Republican People's Party' (CHP) is trying to win votes with nationalistic rhetoric that makes 'terrorism' the decisive issue of this election. Its chairman, Deniz Baykal, abandoned social-democratic positions a long time ago and now promulgates a nationalistic, populist programme.

In the 2002 election the CHP won 19% of the vote, and was the only opposition party to make it into parliament. It can expect to improve on this result in the upcoming election, particularly because this time it is standing in alliance with the 'Party of the Democratic Left' (DSP).

The AKP has lost support as a result of the government's neo-liberal economic policy, which failed to provide adequate social cushioning for the less well-off. Fear of material impoverishment and the consequences of globalisation are issues raised by the CHP in conjunction with nationalism in its election campaign.

Baykal's discourse concludes that the controversial privatisations carried out by the AKP government, like the increase in PKK attacks, indicate that the AKP is 'selling out national interests'.

Mobilization of the far-right parties

The far-right 'Nationalist Movement Party' (MHP) goes one step further. For the party chairman, Devlet Bahceli, Prime Minister Erdogan is the 'greatest political terrorist and arsonist'.

At an election rally Bahceli waves a gallows in the air. 'String him up!' he cries, referring to the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, who is currently serving a life sentence in prison. The MHP demands an immediate military invasion of Kurdish northern Iraq, where the PKK has bases.

In the last elections the MHP got 8.3% of the vote. As this was below the required 10% it was not able to take up any seats in parliament. However, given the feverish mood that has strengthened the nationalist camp it is very likely that in the MHP will manage to clear the 10% hurdle in this election, and will thus enter the parliament.

Even the 'Young Party' (GP), founded by the obscure businessmen and multi-millionaire Cem Uzan – whose father and brother have been on the run for years over charges of tax evasion – might make it into parliament. Uzan's attacks on the AKP government are no less right-wing in their rhetoric than those of the MHP.

This election is thus a confrontation between two irreconcilable camps. Even if the AKP does win an absolute majority, it will find it more difficult to govern after recent political events than in the previous legislative period.

The AKP would have to make political compromises in the selection of a new Turkish president, which is due to take place immediately after the parliamentary elections. However, if it fails to get an absolute majority it will be virtually impossible for it to find a coalition partner.

The independents' chances

In addition, some 'independent' candidates will enter parliament in this election. In 2002, the Kurdish 'Democratic Society Party' (DTP) gained more than 6% of the vote nationwide. This time it is sending so-called 'independents', 'non-party candidates', into the running, for whom the 10% hurdle does not apply.

The Kurds are predicted to be able to count around 20 or 30 members of parliament – enough to combine at a later point within the party and form a parliamentary faction. Independent left-wing candidates in Turkish cities are also considered to have a chance.

Should the independents go so far as to prevent both the AKP and the 'national parties' from getting a parliamentary majority, the country would effectively become ungovernable. Forming a coalition with them is regarded as categorically unacceptable by all major parties. At any rate, if the AKP fails to win a clear majority it is very likely that the resulting government will be politically unstable.

Ömer Erzeren

Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins

Qantara.de

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