Fragile Epicentre of Globalisation
Without a doubt, the immense wealth in natural gas and oil has bestowed extraordinary significance upon the small Gulf monarchies – and, as a result, they have moved into the cross-hairs of the world's most powerful countries. Yet, one consequence of the international financial crisis is that they have suddenly been catapulted into the centre of crucial international decision-making processes. In their desperation, top European politicians have turned to their colleagues in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with the demand that the Gulf states display solidarity and contribute to the stabilization of international financial markets.
The sovereign wealth funds from the Arab epicentre of globalization, previously regarded with much scepticism, were suddenly a very welcome source of financial assistance in the capitals of the West. In return for their financial solidarity within the framework of the G20, the "Arabian Tiger States" demanded to have a greater say in international decisions than previously.
"More than oil and gas"
The rather simplistic title of the international conference organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Berlin, "More than Oil and Gas – The Gulf Region as a Foreign Policy Challenge," could, at least in principle, be seen as warranted, given the growing significance of the Gulf states in an increasingly globalized and multipolar world.
In his video message to the conference, Anwar Mohammad Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of the UAE, underscored the fact that the growing wealth of the Gulf states is slowly being converted into political influence. His country and other Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have long since been active as regional players mediating in numerous trouble spots in the Middle East.
Anwar Mohammad Gargash also stressed the common interests his country shares with Germany and its European neighbours, namely to stabilize Afghanistan and rebuild Iraq. According to Argash, "a strong Iraq is important for balance in the region."
Iran: "poor in resources and too unpopular to achieve dominance"
The small Gulf states are not only worried by the fact that Iran has been the main political beneficiary since the start of the war in Iraq in 2003, but that "there is currently no replacement for Iraq to re-establish a balance of power in the Gulf," explains Henner Fürtig, research associate at the Institute of Middle East Studies of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg. Power in the Gulf region has become extremely imbalanced and this has allowed Iran to gain significant influence.
With the disposal of Saddam Husain, the archenemy of Iran, by the USA, the Iranians have been able to exert influence on Iraq's Shiite parties. As a result, Iran now plays an integral role among the political elite of Iraq. Despite this, Johannes Reissner, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, does not see a dominant position for Iran in the future. The acknowledged expert on Iran has stated that the anxiety of Arabs towards the possibility of Iranian dominance in the region is unfounded.
"Iran is too poor in resources and too unpopular to claim the role of a regional dominant power. Tehran indeed won an enormous degree of political weight after the war if Iraq, yet not all of its dreams have been realized. Despite its aggressive diplomacy, the country is and remains first and foremost a blockade power." In addition, the Shiites are not a monolithic block that can be obediently directed from afar by Tehran. And, finally, Israel and the USA enjoy far greater strategic capacities.
In reality, it is not in Iran's interest to have either a flourishing Iraq, which would present a competing model to Shiite Islamism as practiced in Iran, or an Iraq floundering in civil war and chaos, which could threaten to spill over into neighbouring countries. "A second Afghanistan on its borders would be a horror scenario for those in power in Iran," thinks Johannes Reissner.
"Containment through involvement"
For the Minister of State from Abu Dhabi, relations with Iran remain "difficult." In particular, the unresolved status of three Arabian islands occupied by Iran as well as the opaque nature of the country's nuclear program are "causes for concern."
The international conflict surrounding the Iranian nuclear program exposes the greatest dilemma in the Gulf – the lack of trust and a security architecture. For these reasons, Volker Perthes, Director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, recommends direct talks between Iran and the USA, as only in this way can the inequalities be resolved. For Perthes, the time is ripe for a new security architecture in the Gulf, "because a new American president can bring new legitimation to the process." Nonetheless, no security arrangement can be set up without the participation of the regional powers.
The elite in the Arabian Gulf desire neither military intervention against Iran because of the incalculable consequences for the whole region nor an Iran with nuclear weapons. This is why they attempt to involve Iran in regional structures in the hope of convincing Iran to abandon plans for nuclear armament. This strategy of "containment through involvement" is one that should be supported by Germany and the EU, thinks Eckart von Klaeden, Foreign Policy Spokesman for the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group in the German Bundestag.
The reigning consensus of the attending experts was that there is a lack of discernment in current thought on interregional activities and behavioural patterns. And so it is fitting that the Konrad Adenauer Foundation is the first German political foundation to expand its commitment to the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and set up a regional office in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Loay Mudhoon
© Qantara.de 2008
Translated from the German by John Bergeron
Qantara.de
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