Dilemma over Forming a Government

Hezbollah has suffered an election defeat in Lebanon. This will remove some of the obstacles for international efforts towards normalising the situation in the region. Yet it will not be easy to form a government, writes Peter Philipp

Forecasts of doom were a popular pastime in the run-up to these elections. There was talk of a "head-to-head race" between the two blocs and of the threat of Hezbollah "seizing power" with the support of Iran and Syria. Even the risk of Lebanon being proclaimed an "Islamic Republic" was conjured up.

But under the country's current electoral system, this would have taken a genuine revolution at the ballot box. Lebanese electoral law requires the mandates to be equally distributed between Christians and Muslims, so there is no chance of major shifts without actual demographic change.

Unless, that is, Michel Aoun's Christian partners had really gained so many votes that they could have formed a majority together with Hezbollah. But firstly, this was not the case, and secondly it would not have been a step towards an Islamic Republic. Aoun's grouping is allied to Hezbollah to benefit its own power-political interests – and these do not include the dream of making Lebanon into a new Iran.

Lebanon is not radically religious

So although this "Iranisation" was never a genuine threat, the USA, Europe and Israel are likely to be happy with the election results. Further gains for Hezbollah would hardly have made efforts towards solving the region's burning problems any easier. And Lebanon's "normalisation" project too would have taken a new blow.

A radical religious direction simply isn't characteristic of Lebanon, regardless of which religion that might be. Lebanon is a colourful mosaic of different ethnic and religious groups, and its survival as a state depends upon this melting pot not being stirred up too much.

The long civil war, the years of confrontation with Israel and those of Syrian intervention have left their traces on the country, but they have also reinforced its wish to be truly independent and free – to be "Lebanese".

Difficult government formation

Yet a new adversity looms on the horizon: following years of domestic dispute between Fouad Siniora's government and Hezbollah, a cautious compromise came about in the form of a government of national unity. Unloved by most – because some wanted undiminished power while others demanded a larger piece of that cake – this coalition is now likely to be facing its next test.

The election winners will not be quick to renew the coalition, but the losers won't want to abandon their direct influence on the business of politics either. If the parties fail to agree, the result will be new domestic tensions, but if they continue the coalition, they will rob the elections of all significance.

Peter Philipp

The Middle East expert Peter Philipp is Deutsche Welle's head correspondent. He spent 23 as a correspondent in Jerusalem.

Qantara.de

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