"Breakthroughs" Not at the Top of the Agenda

​​It is not yet certain that Israel's next head of government will be a woman, but Tzipi Livni has been officially given the mandate to form a coalition, and the prospects of her succeeding in doing so are very good indeed. Naturally, she has to successfully negotiate a coalition agreement first. To do so, she will need no small amount of negotiating skills and the instinct that sets leaders apart from other politicians.

This is particularly important in view of the fact that she is operating not only within a complex maze of conflicting domestic interests, but also within an establishment that is dominated by men who are not afraid to go for the jugular. One of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's aides recently declared that Livni, who is still the country's foreign minister, looks "pitiful" when she "tries" to appear statesmanlike.

When it comes to matters of power, the tone quickly gets vicious. However, as a former Mossad agent, Livni will be able to deal with that. It will also prepare her for any later, much more difficult negotiations on key matters of national interest.

Responsibility for Israel's future

The major challenges are clear: Male or female, Olmert's successor has to be aware of the huge responsibility he or she bears for the future of Israel and that of the region and be able to both act cleverly and be steadfast to the same degree. Rash decisions or overhasty actions must be avoided at all costs in matters relating to both war and peace.

​​A mistake like the Lebanon campaign, which was catastrophic for all parties involved (with the exception of Hizbollah), must not be repeated. Moreover, a military strike against Iran would be a mistake as long as Teheran's ability to strike with atomic weapons remains to be established. It would only bring the Arab "man on the street" out in force against Israel again.

At the same time, in view of the stalemate situation in the Palestinian territories, there is no need to rush into making any bad or unsustainable compromises just because the outgoing US President, who has not posted any successes in the region during his presidency, is keen to round off his term in office with a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Instead, it is much more important that care and far-sightedness be used to pave the way for a vital historical settlement between Israel and its Arab neighbours, and in particular for a resolution to the core conflict with the Palestinians.

Hopelessness and fanaticism set the tone

The people in the Middle East have been living in the shadow of fear, terrorism, occupation, and a lack of development for decades. On both sides of the divide, many people have got used to thinking in terms of mistrust and revenge and allow themselves to be frighteningly easily persuaded to opt for violent attempts at problem-solving in crisis situations or in the case of a long-term lack of prospects, despite the fact that violence always makes matters worse.

For a variety of reasons, there will be no easy solutions for Olmert's successor whoever he or she might be. Not only is the core conflict very difficult to solve and will remain so in the future but the situation has in some respects got even worse, particularly on the Palestinian side.

Despite the fact that the ceasefire has by and large held, the situation there remains explosive: poverty, hopelessness, and fanaticism set the tone. It is an acknowledged fact that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas exerts no influence in the Gaza Strip and that he could in the medium term lose the West Bank to the radical Hamas movement too.

The continued construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which is incomprehensible to the Europeans and others, is strengthening Hamas and weakening in a most dangerous manner the legitimacy of Mahmoud Abbas as Israel's only officially recognised Palestinian negotiating partner to date. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Israel's political course on this controversial point in particular will not be easy to reverse as a result of the complex domestic balance of power.

Clever compromises are needed

​​However, it is possible and absolutely essential too to make the most of developments that give reason for hope. The initiation of indirect dialogue with the Syrian regime is one such development, as is the fact that the Arab states have on numerous occasions stressed their willingness to make a historical compromise, even if Israel will certainly not be in a position to fulfil some of the stipulated requirements such as the right of return for all Palestinians who were either displaced or fled the country. Clever compromises are what is needed. What counts is the ultimate goal: Israel and Palestine as two neighbouring states that can survive alongside each other and whose citizens must be able to live in dignity and safety.

The great obstruction potential of those opposed to reconciliation

Ideally speaking, the real trick of government in the coming months will be to take forward the direct and indirect negotiations with Palestinians and Syrians if necessary, behind closed doors without offering those who are opposed to reconciliation an obvious target to attack.

That is difficult enough, particularly as the obstruction potential of those who are opposed to reconciliation remains considerable, hard to gauge, and ultimately dangerous because of the fact that resistance on both sides feeds resistance. Among the opponents are regional heavyweights such as the majority of the Hamas movement, the regime in Iran, the Lebanese Hizbollah, and also influential hardliners and die-hards on the Israeli side.

An environment such as this can wear any Israeli head of government down. Americans, Europeans, and potential peace partners in the Arab world would therefore do well to learn from the failure of the Oslo peace accords and not at this point force Israel and the other parties involved in the conflict into any poorly prepared "historic breakthroughs".

What matters now is to keep the processes that are underway up and running, and to make preparations for what has to date seemed barely possible: a compromise that would in the short term be painful, but would also be fair for all parties through the agency of a new and hopefully in this regard determined US administration.

Should this vision be realised some day despite all obstacles, the assistance of the Europeans would be required not only as an urgently needed source of funding and because of the trust that they enjoy to a certain extent on both sides of the divide, but also because of their undeniable expertise in such important areas as fostering reconciliation between peoples, building up civil societies, post conflict management, and regional integration.

Rainer Sollich

© Qantara 2008

Rainer Sollich is head of Deutsche Welle's Arab radio department

Translated from the German by Aingeal Flanagan

Qantara.de

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