Signs of Attrition
Middle East ceasefire agreements tend to come and go on a regular basis. Yet there is just the slightest trace of hope amid the general mood of scepticism amongst Palestinians that the current, weeklong and fragile ceasefire in Gaza Strip could at least outlast any of its predecessors. Might this really represent a chance for peace, or is it no more than a pause in the seemingly endless round of violence and destruction?
The scepticism is grounded in bitter experience. Both the Palestinian "armed resistance" and Israeli "anti-terror" have long since developed a momentum of their own, resistant to any political control. For the revival of a political process in such an asymmetric conflict it is therefore less important what particular violent activity it is that is taking place locally. Of much greater significance is whether the political will exists to try, somehow, to bring about a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Israel's declared war aims have remained unfulfilled
The current ceasefire is really owing to the prevailing state of exhaustion on both sides. While the eyes of the world were focused on the fighting in Lebanon during the summer, the Gaza Strip was witnessing months of something very much like a war of attrition between Israel and Palestine. At the end of June, the Israeli army retaliated against the Palestinian kidnapping of one of their soldiers, Gilad Schalit, by going back into the Gaza Strip.
Since then there have been nearly 400 deaths, almost half of these civilian, including 61 children and young people. Israel's declared war aims, however, have remained unfulfilled. As well as being unable to rescue the kidnapped soldier, the mighty Israeli military machine failed to find an effective way of preventing the country from being bombarded by Kassam rockets launched from the Gaza Strip.
On the Palestinian side too, the signs of attrition are all too obvious. The high casualty rate of recent months, the terrible destruction everywhere, the political chaos and economic collapse have had the effect of reducing support for the "heroic resistance." On the same day as Israeli artillery bombarded Beit Hanun, Palestinian president Abbas was courageous enough to call for an end to the firing of Kassam rockets from the Palestinian side.
It was a demand that met with few protests.
The errant flight of a recent Kassam rocket, set off during the ceasefire, which resulted in its impacting on Palestinian soil, seemed for many Palestinians to symbolise the dubious nature of this particular form of resistance. Some armed groups however have been claiming the ceasefire as proof of the success of their strategy of attrition against Israel.
A collapse of law and order
Gaza has been in a virtual state of siege since the beginning of the year. Under continual bombardment from land, sea and air, and with devastating air attacks on the infrastructure having brought months of irregular water and electricity supplies during the summer, the inhabitants have largely been cut off, not just because of the almost total closing of the border crossings, but also due to the fact that they are lacking in adequate supplies of necessary commodities, food and medicine.
The economy has practically come to a standstill. The sanctions announced by Israel and the West following the accession to government of Hamas have dramatically worsened the economic situation. The dire consequences of all of this for the Gaza Strip are only partially being offset by the European emergency aid that is now being provided indirectly. Structures destroyed here take a great deal of effort to rebuild and are dependent upon humanitarian aid from abroad.
The return to old clan structures
This development has been accompanied by a collapse of law and order, which is already at an advanced stage. When law and order break down and public institutions can no longer ensure personal security or economic survival, it is the sub-national structures that gain in importance. One manifestation of this fragmentation of Palestinian society is a "retribalisation," the return to old clan structures; a state of affairs in which protection from violence and help in surviving are the preserve of the extended tribal family.
Another manifestation is the ever-widening gulf of political polarisation, which drives its wedges of irreconciliation into Palestinian society. The seeds of moderation find little sustenance in such a situation. The democratic reform wing of Fatah is being marginalized and a similar fragmentation is affecting Hamas. Social immiseration furthermore brings criminality and violence in its wake; the dividing line between political and criminal violence becoming blurred.
The Gaza Strip is on its way to becoming another Somalia. In contrast to Somalia however, the collapse of the state here has come even before its grounding.
The six months of continuous negotiations on a "Government of National Unity" have ground to a halt. Although agreement was reached on a government platform this was not the case when it came to the apportioning of ministerial responsibilities. Who should have control of finances; who take over the "security forces?" In any case, neither side is prepared to accept a "state" power monopoly.
A realistic roadmap to a two-state solution
And doubts are justified about whether the desired technocratic cabinet will be able to solve the two burning problems in the Palestinian territories: the need to bring an end to the international isolation and how to help bring about peace within Palestine itself. A technocratic interim solution does no more than disguise the Palestinian elite's inability to reach a historic compromise or to develop a consistent political strategy.
Whether to go for the setting up of democratic institutions with the perspective of a two-state solution, or for armed resistance, is a question that for many still hangs in the balance.
The ceasefire is hardly likely to accelerate any clarification process so long as it remains devoid of any political perspective. The most recent statements by Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, who declared his allegiance to the vision of a two-state solution, fail to offer any realistic basis from which to proceed. The region certainly doesn't need any rehashed political visions. What it needs is a realistic roadmap to a two-state solution.
That would be the proper use for the ceasefire. By making more precise demands, which would be conditional upon the ending of the isolation of the Palestinian autonomous government, the international community could be making an important contribution to this. And, just imagine, if the truce should hold and nothing happen? Then the ceasefire would, once again, have been nothing more than the calm before the next storm – whether this be civil war in the Palestinian territories or another military escalation.
Christian Sterzing
© Qantara.de 2006
Translated from the German by Ron Walker
Qantara.de
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