Hopes Fade for a Palestinian State

The ceasefire between Hamas and Fatah did not hold for very long. The power struggle between the two rival factions is raging and has become a living nightmare for the civilian population in Gaza, writes Peter Philipp

For quite some time now, noting when a ceasefire in Gaza is holding and when it is not has been a pointless exercise. If an hour goes by without anything happening, it almost counts as a success.

What the Palestinians are doing to one another in the Gaza Strip – and quite possibly in the West Bank soon too – is certainly the greatest strain placed thus far on the sympathy and goodwill felt towards the Palestinians by many around the world.

The shots, skirmishes, attacks, and other violent acts perpetrated in Gaza threaten to destroy this sympathy and compassion and to prove those right who "knew all along" that there was no point in negotiating with the Palestinians about an independent Palestinian state.

"Realpolitik" power struggle

The bloodshed of recent days and weeks has taken place without any Israeli involvement whatsoever. Above all, this is a power struggle; not one where the opposing sides are fighting for the "better ideology" or the "better strategy", but quite simply one which is being fought to decide who is in the driving seat in the Palestinian territories.

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement is still not prepared to accept the result of the elections held in spring 2006, which brought the Islamist Hamas to power.

That being said, it is important to note that in doing so, Fatah is not driven by the considerations that led Israel and the West to distance itself from a Hamas government. This is not a question of whether Hamas should not after all some day recognise the State of Israel, it is about two factions settling both old and new scores.

A strategy that almost worked

This is a conflict that keeps being resolved at the negotiating table at regular intervals – whether in Cairo, Damascus, or Riyadh – only to break out again with more force on the streets and to slide into more violence.

What makes the situation so absurd is that both factions are in the same coalition government and agreed, acting on the advice of the Saudis, to put up a show of conciliation for the world by including Fatah representatives in the government.

It was a strategy that almost worked. After all, foreign countries had focussed so intently on Hamas' position regarding Israel and were relieved at the prospect of being able to talk to moderates like Abbas and other Fatah politicians once again.

Playing into the hands of Israeli falcons

The conflict in Gaza and the discord between the opposing coalition partners is destroying this hope at a point in time when, for example, the EU had decided to relaunch its aid for the Palestinians. Whether these plans will now go ahead in their proposed form is another matter entirely. And another thing: the warring factions in Gaza are playing into the hands of Olmert's government.

Instead of putting pressure on the Israelis by steering a peaceable course and putting Israel in the uncomfortable position of having to do something that just might be to its disadvantage, the Palestinians are providing the Israeli government with the pretext it needs to continue refusing to make contact, hold negotiations, and make concessions.

It probably won't be long before people start speculating that Israel was probably behind the whole thing, but that really would be a very eccentric view of the situation. It is the Palestinians who are shooting themselves in the foot.

Peter Philipp

Translated from the German by Aingeal Flanagan

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