A Window of Opportunity for Reunification

It was only recently that the Turkish Cypriot leadership opened its own diplomatic mission in Israel; now both Turkish and Greek Cypriots seem to be showing the political will which could lead to a reunification of the island. Susanne Güsten reports from Istanbul.

When Demetris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat stepped in front of the cameras after meeting in no-man's-land on the divided island, they reported on their decision to move towards new peace talks and ushered in a new era in the Eastern Mediterranean.

For the first time since the division of Cyprus in 1974, both the Greek and the Turkish sectors of the island are being led by politicians who want to see reunification on the basis of the political equality of the two communities.

Experts on both sides of the demarcation line agree that this is a historic chance which will not occur again soon. The European Union is a common point of reference for both sides, and it can make a significant contribution towards ensuring that this chance isn't wasted.

"There is no longer a Mr No." That's how the Istanbul political analyst Cengiz Aktar describes the new situation in Cyprus. For decades the role of "Mr No" had been played by Rauf Denktash, who was for many years the leader of the Turkish Cypriots.

Dancing on political eggshells

Denktash sought a "two state solution" for the island – in other words, a permanent separation of the two parts – because he held that, after the violent struggles of the sixties and the seventies, Turks and Greeks could no longer live in one state. Denktash intended his declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983 to cement this division, but his "state" has only ever been recognised by Turkey.

Three years ago, Denktash gave way to Talat, who was a reformer and a supporter of the EU, whereupon the role of "Mr No" went to a politician on the Greek side of the Green Line: the Greek Cypriot president Tassos Papadopoulos.

In 2004, Papadopoulos travelled to Switzerland where he helped to work out a United Nations peace plan for the island, but only a few weeks later he recommended to his people that they should reject the plan in a referendum.

The Greek Cypriots followed the advice of their president, and the reunification failed once more to come about. Since then, Papadopoulos has been accused by his colleagues in the EU of having "tricked" the international mediators, as the former EU Expansion Commissioner Günter Verheugen put it.

A small but significant window of opportunity

In February this year Papadopoulos was defeated by the communist Christofias in presidential elections in the Greek sector. Christofias, who, like his Turkish counterpart Talat comes from the northern Cyprus town of Kyrenia (in Turkish: Girne), declared that efforts to reunite the island would be his first priority. The Greeks fear that the division could be permanent if something is not done soon.

Christofias wants to try, together with Talat, to remove the mistrust which has built up between the two parts of the island over the decades. The preconditions for a push towards peace have not been better since summer 1974.

That was when Greek extremists tried to engineer the takeover of the island by Greece by carrying out a putsch against the government of the then-united island in Nicosia, whereupon Turkey sent its troops in to the north of the islands, where most of the population was Turkish.

Christofias and Talat have underlined their desire to come to an agreement by re-opening Ledra Street, the shopping centre in the centre of the divided capital Nikosia which has been closed since fighting in the early sixties. In June the two sides want to begin new talks on reunification. But in spite of the good will on both sides, it will remain difficult to bring the differing views of the Greeks and the Turks into one united position.

There are 200,000 Turks on the island as against 900,000 Greeks, and while the Greeks want to prevent Turkey from interfering in government as the protector of the Turkish Cypriots, the Turkish Cypriot minority wants cast-iron guarantees to ensure their autonomy in the new Cyprus.

In the short term, the Turkish Cypriots want international recognition above all else. The recent visit to the Turkish part of Nicosia by the former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, and the head of the German Green party, Claudia Roth, is seen by the Turkish side as a diplomatic success, as is the planned opening of a Turkish Cypriot diplomatic mission in Israel

Ankara can get to Europe only via Cyprus

But such symbolic demonstrations of an independent Turkish Cypriot political identity belong to the past rather than to the future – at least if one can believe what Christofias and Talat have to say. A common future for both parts of the island in the European Union – that is the aim of both ethnic groups, in spite of their painful memories, says the political analyst Joseph Joseph of the University of Cyprus in the Greek part of Nicosia.

The role of the EU will therefore be extremely significant in the forthcoming negotiations, especially since Turkey's hopes of joining the EU lead via Nicosia.

The Cyprus conflict has become a millstone around Ankara's neck which it would love to get rid of, says the Turkish columnist Semih Idiz. That's why Turkey is so interested in seeing the planned negotiations make progress. If there should be movement on the island over the next few months, Ankara might give up its refusal to open its ports to Greek Cypriot ships.

That in turn would allow the re-opening of eight blocked chapters in the negotiations for Turkish EU accession. The Istanbul political analyst Cengiz Aktar says, "Should it be possible to break through the dead end in Cyprus, that would mean that one of the best excuses of those in the EU who are opposed to Turkish membership would dissolve into thin air."

Susanne Güsten

Translated from the German by Michael Lawton

Qantara.de

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