Mubarak the Invincible?

The announcement of the official figures immediately sparked a conflict over who is authorized to interpret the results: while the governing party and the President now regard themselves as democratically legitimized, the opposition has formed a closed front protesting the results and contemplating whether to contest them.

Precipitating what have been in part vehement attacks were reports from independent election observers who repeatedly cited substantial irregularities at the polls.

Their main criticism was that many Egyptians were unable to find their names in the voter lists and were thus prevented from voting. The purchasing of votes and actual manipulation of ballot boxes were also observed on election day.

According to Hafez Abu Saada, General Secretary of the Egyptian human rights organization EOHR, up to 15 percent of the votes may have been manipulated.

Protests in Cairo

Candidate Ayman Nur told the AP news agency: "This is a farce. I will take action against it in order to win back our rights." Together with the protest movement "Kifaya" ("Enough!") and the Marxist party "Tagammu," Nur and the adherents of his party, "Al-Ghad," went on the march through downtown Cairo last Saturday to protest Mubarak's re-election.

Their criticism was not directed only at irregularities and manipulation of the election results themselves. The low rate of voter participation was also viewed as grounds for disputing the President's mandate for taking on another term: "Mubarak is ruling Egypt with the consent of only 19 percent of voters!" one of the posters proclaimed. Although official figures put voter participation at 23 percent, election observers view this number as improbably high.

According to representatives from the judges' association, which monitored the polls, voter participation was estimated to be over 20 percent only in rural areas, while in the capital only 3 to 5 percent of voters showed up at the polls. These figures are similar to those cited during the last presidential referendum.

Mubarak expresses gratitude

Despite all criticism, on Sunday Hosni Mubarak thanked the Egyptian people for their widespread approval and promised to carry forth during this fifth term the democratic reform course he had instituted: "With all determination and persistence, I will work on creating a modern society for free citizens in a democratic country."

But the fact that over three-fourths of Egyptians failed to vote demonstrates how little faith people here have in the earnestness of Mubarak's reform intentions. The disillusionment brought by the last referenda has left its mark and a deep-seated political abstinence has become entrenched in the Egyptian spirit.

At the same time, low voter participation also shows that the struggling economy and high unemployment have prevented the emergence of a strong middle class that could function to cultivate and shore up democratic tendencies.

Significance of upcoming parliamentary elections

With regard to future political developments in the country, the parliamentary elections coming up in November could prove to be very significant. By contrast with the presidential elections, non-partisan candidates and the Muslim Brotherhood can also canvass for votes for parliamentary seats.

A stronger opposition and the break-up of the governing party's monopoly position would no doubt increase pressure on Mubarak to keep his promises and forge ahead down the path toward re-politicization of the Egyptian populace.

But it is not only the results of the election that will be interesting to observe. Improving the general conditions under which the elections are held would give the government another chance to show that its determination to institute reforms is not merely an empty campaign slogan.

Only a truly free election could encourage people to once again take active part in the political process – crucial here will be granting permission for international election observers to enter the country and work side-by-side with independent domestic monitors given unlimited access to the polls.

Need for further political reforms

The public criticism of the election results as well as the demonstrations held by various groups on Saturday are a clear expression of the country's changing political mood. Mubarak's unprecedented decision to allow several candidates to run alongside him, and the resulting possibility of offering people political alternatives, played a major role in this new spirit.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether Mubarak will manage to keep his central campaign promises, such as rescinding the emergency laws that are still in effect, as well as reducing restrictions on party formation.

Only measures of this kind will make it possible for the Egyptian population to take up the positive signals sent by these elections and translate them into more active political participation in the future.

Veit Medick

© Qantara.de 2005

Translation from German: Jennifer Taylor-Gaida

Qantara.de

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