Membership Process under Pressure

The plan was as clever as it was transparent: give a few distinguished minds the task of thinking about the future of the European Union. If they conclude that it would be bad for the EU for Turkey to join, so much the better. Then no member state has to admit openly that it no longer feels bound to its promise to commit to talks aiming for Turkish membership.

As the idea was his brainchild, France's president Nicolas Sarkozy is now celebrating what he sees as a huge success; the European leaders' decision at their most recent summit to appoint a so-called "council of wise men" to consider the future of Europe.

Sarkozy does not see Turkey as a European country, and wants instead to increase its links to the EU as part of a so-called "Mediterranean Union". He won his election campaign, amongst other things, with his promise to keep Turkey out of the EU. He is now therefore putting much energy into halting accession negotiations with Ankara.

Little chance of success

The new EU advisory committee will not have any influence on Turkey's membership process however, say those party to the negotiations with Ankara, as well as Brussels diplomats, the French excluded. Antonio Missiroli, director of studies at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, says that the wise men's council does not have the mandate Sarkozy hoped it would; the EU leaders have not asked the new committee to determine the limits to European expansion or the ultimate nature of the Union, as so vehemently demanded by their French colleagues, he says.

Equally however, the woolly definition of their mandate does not exclude the subject of Turkey's accession. According to the summit conclusions, the team of experts is to identify the key topics and developments affecting the EU and analyse what approach should be taken to them.

Missiroli sees the backgrounds and nationalities of the three "wise men council" leaders as guaranteeing that the committee will not speak out against Turkish membership of the EU. Spain's former prime minister Felipe González is to lead the group, along with the ex-president of Latvia, Vaira Vike-Freiberga and Finnish businessman Jorma Ollila, former head of mobile phone company Nokia. The Spanish and Finnish governments are strongly in favour of Turkey joining the EU, Latvia is certainly not against it.

Continuing the negotiations

After the summit British and Scandinavian EU-diplomats claimed that the decision to elect the "wise men's committee" was taken simply in order to buy French agreement to opening up two further areas of negotiation within the accession talks with Turkey. As planned, a few days after the EU heads' meeting, the EU commission began negotiations aimed towards Turkish adoption of the EU regulations in the areas of trans-European transport networks as well as consumer and health protection.

It will however still be some time before further chapters of negotiations are opened. Talks on trade and business questions have been on ice since December 2006, and will only be resumed when Turkey puts a customs agreement made with the EU into full effect. Because of a long-running dispute over the Turkish northern half of Cyprus, Ankara refuses to open up Turkish ports and airports to air and sea traffic originating from the Greek part of Cyprus, an EU member state since 2004.

Missiroli says that both the EU and Turkey are more or less in agreement that the entry process can be slowed down. However should the talks ever cease completely, this would not be the result of a decision taken in Brussels, he says. The majority of the EU states remain in favour of the inclusion of Turkey. This balance could only shift if Germany's position were to change fundamentally.

Missiroli says that if Germany were no longer ruled by a coalition, instead by the conservative CDU party, then a major German-French anti-Ankara alliance would form. This might be further strengthened were the pro-Turkish British to increase their distance from the EU.

Open-ended talks

The EU has been negotiating with Turkey since October 2005 about an accession unlikely to take place before 2020. Although the shared aim of the talks is to achieve full membership, the EU describes the talks as open-ended. Turkey will not automatically enter the EU even if it fulfils all the criteria.

The extent to which the "wise men's council" can or will deliver recommendations on the EU's approach to Turkey remains to be seen. At any rate, during the French EU presidency in the second half of 2008, Sarkozy will attempt to use his influence. However states such as the UK, Finland, Sweden and most of the new East-European EU members will seek to prevent the new thinkers' group from placing hurdles in Turkey's way.

Furthermore the council of wise men are to be occupied with questions relevant to the period from 2020 to 2030. By this point both the EU and Turkey should have dealt with the accession question once and for all.

Daniela Schröder

© Qantara.de 2007

Translated from the German by Steph Morris

Qantara.de

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