The Anti-Fundamentalist Coalition

The election of ex-president Rafsanjani as head of the Assembly of Experts in Teheran has prevented radical Islamic forces from gaining total control over the political system. His election was enabled by a coalition of religious conservatives, pragmatists and reformers, writes Faraj Sarkohi

The media and commentators who see Rafsanjani's clear victory in the elections for the Assembly of Experts as a sign of allegedly waning support for Ahmadinejad and the cleric behind him, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, only reveal part of the far more complicated political reality in Iran.

Such an interpretation of the election results reflects wishful thinking on the part of the European and western states, that Ahmadinejad's policies will fail and the Islamic Republic gradually develop into a moderate state.

The results of the three simultaneous elections held on 15 December – for the Assembly of Experts, which appoints the spiritual leader and monitors his decisions, the local council elections and the interim parliamentary election – are too multidimensional to assume a changing trend or a victory for moderate forces in Iran, as some western media are claiming.

Rafsanjani as political linchpin

Rafsanjani's 1.5 million votes in the Assembly of Experts election, bringing him to the top of the candidates in Teheran, are more like compensation for his humiliating defeats in the presidential and parliamentary elections.

The poll strengthens his position within the ruling power structures and confirms his standing as the linchpin of the coalition between the three wings of the traditionalist conservatives, the religious reformers and the religious pragmatists.

But Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, now number six on the list of 15 candidates, has also made gains compared to the previous elections. The majority of elected members of the Assembly of Experts from Teheran and the country's other provinces ran on the ticket of the three clerical associations, considered traditionalist conservatives.

Having gained the majority on the Assembly of Experts and won the interim parliamentary elections, the traditionally oriented conservatives have proved the strength of their roots in clerical and Mosque circles.

Their victory at the polls upholds the current structure of the assembly, which supports the spiritual leader. Rafsanjani, who enters the Assembly of Experts with the largest number of votes, is already preparing to take his place as leader. The current chairman of the assembly, Ayatollah Meshkini, is likely to step down due to old age and poor health.

Hardliner resistance

However, the change in leadership is unlikely to go smoothly, as the radical Islamic faction ("Usulgera") led by Mesbah Yazdi has maintained its position as the second most powerful group in the Assembly of Experts.

To make matters more complicated, Rafsanjani's victory at the assembly polls coincides with the failure of the coalition of religious reformers and pragmatists in the local elections: the radical Islamist forces that regard Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi as one of their mentors gained a clear majority of over 60 percent in the local elections. That means they now control most local and city councils in Iran.

The results show one thing quite clearly: for the very first time in the history of the Islamic Republic, the three wings of government – the religious reformers, the traditionalist conservatives and the religious pragmatists – have united against the radical Islamist forces in the election for the Assembly of Experts.

New alliances

The first-generation traditionalist conservatives from the years of the revolution regard Ahmadinejad's political agenda, particularly his anti-corruption programme, as a threat. They are supporting Rafsanjani in the hope of restricting the influence of the radical Islamist forces.

The religious reformers, who have suffered one defeat after the next in the presidential, local and parliamentary elections in recent years, are now attempting to close ranks with the pragmatists and traditionalist conservatives, accepting Rafsanjani's claim to leadership.

Another first in the history of the Islamic Republic is the fact that the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who regards the new power wielded by Mesbah Yazdi and his followers as a threat to his own position, favoured Rafsanjani for the first time – a strategy which the former president Khatami also implicitly pursued.

If the radical Islamic forces fail to solve their internal disputes and Rafsanjani succeeds in keeping the three-party coalition together – provided he gains a majority in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2008 – Iran's political face will be drastically changed.

Change of foreign policy in sight?

This change does not mean that the Iranian government will halt the country's nuclear programme or officially recognise Israel. But it could imply a more flexible policy towards the USA and concerning the Middle East conflict and the war in Iraq on the international level, and a strengthening of the private sector in domestic policy.

Of course, any such changes also depend on international developments and are difficult to predict in a crisis region such as the Middle East.

Rafsanjani has certainly given the people of Iran the impression that he is firmly against causing further tension on the international stage. This message played a key role for Iranian voters, who fear that their country could become politically isolated, its economic crisis could intensify, and the threat of military intervention from outside could further increase.

However, Rafsanjani's support for Iran's nuclear programme and his sympathies with radical Palestinian groupings makes this message appear rather a questionable tactical manoeuvre. But at least his newly strengthened position gives the moderate religious groupings ground for hope that they may be able to maintain and extend their power.

Faraj Sarkohi

Translated from the German by Katy Derbyshire

Qantara.de

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