Military Threat to Ensure Successful Negotiation?

Although German Chancellor Schröder has once again ruled out the use of force to ensure that Iran complies with international demands, high-ranking diplomats have argued for the usefulness of Washington's military threat. Chuck Penfold reports

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has urged Iran to completely renounce the military use of nuclear power. But he emphatically ruled out the use of force to ensure that Iran complies with international demands. Schröder made the statement during a speech at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos.

It was just the latest statement to come from a high-ranking member of the German government on Iran and its nuclear programme. This raises new questions about the level of trans-Atlantic co-operation in efforts to get Iran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions.

Speaking to political and business leaders in Davos, the chancellor attempted to make Germany's position on Iran perfectly clear.

Diplomatic, political efforts

"We are completely in favour of Iran giving up aspirations of building nuclear arms," the chancellor said.

"We're just as determined that this dispute be solved through diplomatic or political efforts" the chancellor continued. "There's enough conflict in the region as it is, we really don't need another conflict there."

Chancellor Schröder's statement appeared to be in response to reports out of Washington that the United States may have already sent commandos into Iran to identify possible targets. Then US President George W. Bush refused to rule out military action.

Schröder's statement in Davos varied from comments made by Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer during his visit to Washington a few days ago, in tone more than anything.

"It's important for us to keep the intensive trans-Atlantic dialogue going, aimed at finding a common position, which can help bring us closer to a diplomatic solution," Fischer said.

Germany, Britain and France have been holding negotiations with Tehran for months, aimed at convincing Iran to abandon its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. They're hoping to avoid another conflict in the region, and it's clear that if the United States resorts to military action against Iran, Germany won't be taking part.

"Threat of use of force may be useful"

Iranian scholar Shahram Chubin is the director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. He says that for several reasons, attacking Iran is not the answer. But he says the threat of the use of force could be useful.

That's a point that hasn't been lost on the opposition in the German parliament. Even before his speech in Davos, the Christian Democrats deputy parliamentary party leader, Wolfgang Schäuble slammed the chancellor for publicly opposing the use of military force.

Schäuble argued that the EU negotiators' promises to provide Tehran with a package of economic benefits might not be enough to convince the Iranians to give up their nuclear weapons ambitions.

But this point hasn't been lost on the government. Karsten Voigt, the government's co-ordinator on German-US Relations, recently said in a radio interview that Bush's refusal to rule out the military option could actually increase the European's chance for success.

Military threat to ensure successful negotiations

"If the Iranians know that if the negotiations fail to produce a peaceful resolution, the Americans could decide to resolve the problem through other means," Voigt said, "then this could increase their willingness to compromise, and give up their nuclear weapons programme."

And despite Chancellor Schröder's opposition to the use of force against Iran, the implicit threat of military action remains on the table. Because if the United States decide to exercise its military option on Iran, there's no reason to believe that Germany will be any more successful in stopping it than it was when Washington decided to invade Iraq almost two years ago.

Chuck Penfold