Historic Chance for Peace

In the referendum starting on 9 January, southern Sudan will vote for independence. Hardly anyone expects any other outcome. Even the government in Khartoum assumes that the South Sudanese will decide in favour of secession and their own state. Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir and his government repeat on a daily basis that they will respect the outcome of the referendum.

Indeed, they'll be the first state to send an ambassador to Juba, the capital of the future state of South Sudan, they say, and are prepared to help the South on economic and security issues.

So everything might go well. However, considering some of the country's flash points, other scenarios are possible. For instance, not all border issues have been clarified as yet, and one can hardly expect them to be resolved in the six-month transition period after the referendum.

Dense network of social relations

The South harbours a number of Darfur rebels, while Khartoum is home to several opposition leaders from the South. Both sides could destabilize the other if political or border conflicts break out. There is a dense network of social relations between the North and South, which are used for mutual advantage but could also give rise to conflict.

One such example is the seasonal migration of hundreds of thousands of nomads, who drive their herds south during the rainy season. Many observers are also concerned about what will become of the estimated one to two million South Sudanese now living in the North, who will become foreigners overnight on secession. These people are needed in North Sudan; they have work there, as well as income and training possibilities.

In the South, on the other hand, almost everything is in short supply: infrastructure, housing and jobs. For most of these people, moving to the South is not a realistic alternative. However, extremist voices in the North are openly suggesting that these people should leave the country if they don't want to be part of Sudan.

The government has declared that no one has anything to fear. Yet some opposition politicians have warned that a regime facing pressure on the domestic front could tolerate extremist agitation and even violence against the southern Sudanese.

​​The Bashir government will almost certainly come under pressure. The loss of the oil fields in the South will cause economic difficulties, and even members of the political elite are accusing the president of having gambled away the country's unity with the 2005 peace treaty and its implementation. Could he not have prevented a referendum on "self-determination" like other governments before him?

"No more war!"

It would indeed be a remarkable turn of events if the internationally isolated Sudanese president, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, were to allow the South to become independent peacefully, despite all resistance. The international community ought to honour such an action for the sake of regional stability alone.

Neither in the North nor in the South will a liberal, democratic regime come about, but Sudan will have a chance to recover from many years of civil war. "We want one thing above all: no more war," one of Bashir's ministers and close advisors said in a recent interview. They will cope with the loss of oil income, he added, as most of the oil money was wasted first on the war against the South and then in Darfur.

The main tasks now, he said, are to build constructive relations with the new neighbour in the South, to invest in his own country's development and to convince European partners that Sudan is a country worth cooperating with. Up to now, the minister admitted, only Chinese and Brazilian companies have recognized this opportunity.

Continuation of the peace process

In actual fact, both Sudans – North and South – will need international support. The South requires help, above all setting up state institutions, a police force, a judicial system and administrations.

There will have to be a new UN Blue Helmet mission between the North and South to prevent incidents on the border. Germany, a member of the Security Council, could support such a mission by making some soldiers available. The North and South need help establishing a functioning border management system.

Moreover, the North has to be pressurized and encouraged to continue the peace process in Darfur. Unlike in the South, this issue is not about independence. The war in Darfur is the result of decades of political and economic marginalization and of conflicts between stock breeders and arable farmers, intensified by increased dry periods and exploited by the government to mobilize tribal militias against the rebels. The rebel group that is currently the most important in the country is above all interested in getting a share of power in Khartoum.

Yet the key to peace is not only political agreement with the rebels, which the African Union and Qatar are working towards, and reconciliation within society, in which the most important groups appear to be willing to play a role.

A ceasefire in Darfur will only last if there are alternatives to war there: a reactivation of agriculture and investment in infrastructure that enable self-supporting economic development. Without international help, Sudan won't be able to achieve that.

Southern Sudan's independence thus offers the European states a chance to place their relations to Khartoum on a new footing. The USA has already indicated that it will cancel its sanctions against Sudan if the Khartoum government lets the South go in peace.

To date, these sanctions have prevented European and other companies from getting involved in the country, which will still be the third largest in Africa even after the South's secession.

Europe should not wait for the green light from Washington, however: pro-active political and economic engagement in both Sudanese states would be an expression of a confident European peace policy in Africa.

Volker Perthes

© Qantara.de 2011

Translated from the German by Katy Derbyshire

Editor: Aingeal Flanagan/Qantara.de

Volker Perthes is head of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. He has recently returned from a trip to the Sudanese capital, Khartoum.

Qantara.de

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