A fractured nation on the brink of partition

As Sudan marks the second anniversary of its devastating war, the country stands at a precarious crossroads. What seemingly began as a power struggle between military factions has evolved into a multifaceted counterrevolutionary war with significant proxy dimensions and profound humanitarian and geopolitical implications.

Despite major recent shifts in territorial control, including over the capital, Khartoum, prospects for peace remain elusive, while millions of Sudanese suffer unprecedented hardship.  

The continuation of the war threatens long-term state collapse. The future of the nation as a united country is in jeopardy, with signs of potential partition and fragmentation manifesting across the country.  

The path to war: a revolution derailed

Sudan's current crisis erupted on 15 April 2023, when fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti). The conflict, which began in Khartoum, quickly engulfed much of the country, effectively crushing the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people.

In 2019, the authoritarian regime of Omar al-Bashir was ousted by a popular revolution. A power-sharing agreement was then signed between civilian forces and military factions, including SAF and RSF. In October 2021, SAF and RSF led a military coup that toppled their civilian counterparts, derailed democratic aspirations, and set the stage for the eventual confrontation between the two groups in April 2023.

The current war is a continuation of an anti-democratic campaign that started with the 2021 military coup. The war is not merely an internal power struggle nor a proxy war of regional powers. It is a multi-dimensional counterrevolutionary war, sustained by internal and external actors with shared capital interests. Ultimately, it is war against civilians. 

The world's worst humanitarian crisis

The war has dramatically exacerbated preexisting humanitarian challenges in Sudan. Since it erupted, Sudanese people have been facing an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe. The war has claimed at least 150,000 lives and displaced over 12 million people. More than 30 million people need urgent humanitarian assistance. Around half of the population is acutely food insecure, with famine confirmed in at least ten areas.

As stated, the war is one on civilians. The fighting has been characterised by conflict-related sexual and gender-based violence and attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, not limited to but including internally displaced persons camps, hospitals, schools, and churches. 

Sudan today is the world's largest displacement crisis and hunger crisis, making it the worst humanitarian crisis in recent history. But the world is looking away. As of March 2025, the 2025 humanitarian response plan for Sudan, which calls for $4.16 billion in funding to address the multiple needs of the civilian population, is only 6% funded.

This massive funding gap means humanitarian conditions are likely to worsen. To make matters worse, there is a persistent pattern of warring factions blocking the delivery of humanitarian aid.

SAF advances

Recent months have seen significant shifts in the frontline. In March 2025, the SAF announced they had recaptured Khartoum, expelling RSF forces from the capital. This marked a symbolic and strategic victory for the SAF, allowing them to consolidate their control over the centre, east and north of the country. 

Since their defeat in Khartoum, RSF forces have retreated West toward Kordofan, White Nile and Darfur. The RSF controls most of Darfur and parts of Kordofan. El-Fasher, the last city in Darfur held by the SAF, has been under attack by the RSF for the past year, as they look to cement their control over the region.   

Despite SAF advances, a decisive military victory for either side remains unlikely. The war has increasingly fragmented and expanded, with both parties relying on militias and allied groups, making it difficult for either to secure a complete victory. 

Amid this relentless fighting, civilians continue to bear the brunt of the violence and the impact of displacement. Every time frontlines shift, civilians are subject to targeted attacks. Most recently, there have been harrowing reports of retaliatory violence against civilians in Khartoum after the SAF's recapture of the city. The RSF forces have also launched reprisal attacks across the country since their defeat in the capital.

Parallel governments in the making

As the battlefield evolves, both warring factions have made moves to establish legitimacy through parallel governmental structures, potentially cementing Sudan's de facto partition.  

In February, following significant military gains, al-Burhan's SAF announced plans to form a new technocratic caretaker government, and subsequently modified the transitional constitution to pave the way for this government. Notably, SAF have continuously withheld public services and humanitarian aid provision from RSF-controlled areas, contributing to the de facto division of the country.

The RSF and its allies have also announced the formation of a counter-government on the anniversary of the start of the war. RSF leader Daglo reaffirmed his claim to control the entire country with this government and announced a new currency and new identity cards.*   

The emergence of parallel governments while the war still rages on raises serious concerns about Sudan's territorial integrity and entrenches division. Consequently, various analysts have warned against a scenario resembling Libya's fragmentation or Somalia's collapse. Any scenario in which Sudan is split in two will prolong the war and result in further regional spillovers. 

Competing global agendas and stalled diplomacy

Multiple peace initiatives have sought to end Sudan's war, but all have collapsed amid shifting battlefield dynamics and shrinking global interest. A key factor in this failure is the fragmentation and competition among countries involved in the mediation initiatives. 

The most promising attempt was the US-Saudi led platform in Jeddah. This succeeded in bringing both belligerents the table where they signed the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan. Nevertheless, the SAF and RSF failed to commit to the declaration, as there were no accountability mechanisms and they were not subject to pressure from their respective regional backers.

The US has been a key player in mediation efforts. However, the recent change of administration in the US, and the focus on other conflicts, will likely limit their ability and interest to actively engage in ending the war in Sudan. Furthermore, shifting geopolitics—including tariff wars and developments in Ukraine—will make other global powers, like the European Union, focus their efforts elsewhere.

Regional bodies, such as the African Union, have inadequate capacity to engage in ending the war given the different biases of its member states, and the union's limited resources.  

The British government is co-hosting a global conference in London beginning on 15 April 2025, though it seems that it will focus mostly on the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, and is unlikely to bring the conflict to an end. 

Pathways to peace or partition?

As Sudan enters the third year of the conflict, prospects for peace remain uncertain. The Sudanese people repeatedly find themselves without steadfast allies dedicated to ending the war ravaging their nation. In that context, protection of civilians in Sudan remains paramount. Prospective peace processes should place civilians at the heart of the negotiations, given that they have been bearing the brunt of the war.  

Indeed, there will be no military solution to Sudan's war. Ending the war requires more serious engagement from the international community to establish a joint peace process, through which they can use their collective leverage to disincentive SAF and RSF and to exert pressure on their regional backers.  

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Sudan continues its descent into further fragmentation or whether the international community can facilitate a path toward stability.  

The longer the warring factions continue to fight, the greater the risk of a second partition of Sudan, only 14 years after South Sudan claimed its independence.

* this paragraph has been updated on April 16, 2025.