The Dilemma Facing Bashar al Assad
"If you, dear sir, had any knowledge of this, that would be very unfortunate. And if you did not know about it, that would be an even greater misfortune."
With this widely known verse by an Arab poet, a commentator in the Saudi newspaper Asharq al Awsat accused Syrian president Bashar al Assad of bearing a share of the political responsibility for the murder of former Lebanese Premier al Hariri.
Similar analyses, which regard the report made by UN investigator Detlev Mehlis in Berlin as credible, can be read throughout almost the entire Arab press, with the exception of Syria's state-controlled media. Commentators also agree on the gravity of the situation in which the Baath regime currently finds itself.
Government plunged into existential crisis
The days in which writers approached the subject of Syrian politics with utmost caution are now over. The regime in the Damascus, which for decades had the power to strike fear in the hearts of potential critics, is for the first time confronting a deep existential crisis.
The murder of Rafik al Hariri is not the only cause behind this crisis in Syrian politics, regardless of the identity of the perpetrator; instead, it represents one of the consequences. When President Bashar al Assad came to power five years ago, he inherited firmly entrenched power structures which have proven to be singularly immune to much-needed democratic reforms.
Syrian civil society's hopes for a political springtime were rapidly dashed as it became evident that the political power base would remain in the hands of the old, well-established security apparatus. In foreign policy terms, this led to grave misjudgments with regard to the changes in world policy that have taken place since the terrorist attacks of 9/11.
The break with many of Syria's Lebanese allies
But even earlier, in May 2000, Syria proved itself incapable of comprehending the ramifications of Israel's retreat out of Lebanon. Instead of following suit by withdrawing its own armed forces, Damascus clamped down even more strongly and utilized the Hezbollah as a possible means of exerting pressure on Israel in the event of negotiations on the Golan Heights. This tactic led to a break with many of Syria's Lebanese allies, in particular al Hariri.
And the policy was not condoned by either the UN or France, which up until last year had been Syria's only western friend. The international community was interested primarily in the end of military tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border, and in seeing Lebanon regain its sovereignty.
At the risk of losing its influence in Lebanon, the Syrian government reacted according to the age-old pattern. Against the will of the Lebanese majority and backed by its security apparatus, Damascus extended the term of Lebanese president Émile Lahoud last fall. This directly precipitated UN Resolution 1559, which demanded the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the disarming of the Hezbollah.
The path to gradual isolation
Suddenly, the positions of France and the USA began to coincide. This was a fatal development for Syria, which since then has been completely isolated. The anti-Syrian opposition in Lebanon took advantage of the opportunity to consolidate and now enjoys broad-based international support.
It was under these conditions that the assassination of al Hariri took place and, finally, something that had been inconceivable until that time – the withdrawal of Syrian troops out of Lebanon.
The Syrian regime thus lost its influence both in Lebanon and elsewhere. It has now even come under suspicion of being behind the murder of the former Lebanese premier. The UN Security Council has therefore compelled President Assad to cooperate in Detlev Mehlis's investigation – not an easy task for the Syrian leader. It is hard to imagine Syria turning in its highest security officers, the true rulers of the country. This would be tantamount to Assad committing political suicide.
The price of political survival
On the domestic level, the regime is still stable. But it cannot survive without continuing deterrence tactics. Those at the helm in Syria have a deep-seated fear of protest movements oriented on the Lebanese model. And the momentary weakness of the opposition has done nothing to assuage this fear. Syrian politics simply has no tools at its command for dealing with the present situation. This is why contradictory signals have been coming from Damascus.
On the one hand, the UN report on al Hariri's murder has been repudiated as containing nothing but lies. But on the other hand, Syria has declared itself prepared to cooperate with Mehlis.
President Assad evidently has to pay a high price for his political survival. The USA is demanding three things from him: first, the sealing of Syria's border with Iraq against the terrorist jihadists; second, an end to the government's support of radical Palestinian organizations; and third, its cooperation in finding al Hariri's assassin(s).
The Syrians are evidently prepared to meet the first two demands. But, given the logic behind the way the present-day regime functions, the third demand will be hard to satisfy, since this could uproot Assad's power base. Prospects do not look promising for the Baath regime in Syria.
Abdel Mottaleb al-Husseini
© Frankfurter Rundschau/Qantara.de 2005
Translation from the German by Jennifer Taylor-Gaida
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