Fanning the Flames of Fear

The mass rallies against the conservative Islamic government, such as the one that recently took place in Izmir, are drawing attention to the widely feared creeping Islamicization of Turkey and the country's current political crisis. By Ömer Erzeren

The recent political developments in Turkey have taken many observers by surprise. Within a few weeks the outrageous happened: Parliament canceled the presidential elections, mass demonstrations were held against the government, and the military issued a declaration that indirectly threatened a putsch. The early parliamentary elections on July 22 are supposed to lead the country out of this deep political crisis.

A particular interpretation of these events is prevalent among the foreign media. According to this version, the conservative government under Tayyip Erdogan has blessed the country with economic growth, rapprochement with the EU, and relative social peace during its incumbency.

The Islamist past of the leading officials of the governing AK Party, which is considered to be centrist nowadays, has also facilitated the reconciliation of Islam and democracy.

The AK Party, whose leaders are devout Muslims, have proven that they are a secular party. In recent events, the old Kemalist elites are using undemocratic means, most notably the military, to try to topple the democratically legitimized government. The opponents of the AK Party are advocates of an authoritarian, nationalist course in politics.

Secularism in danger?

Such an interpretation, however, sweeps quite a bit under the rug. For example, the nature of the mass demonstrations against the AK Party – the media reported that over one million demonstrators rallied in Istanbul alone.

The manner in which the governing party was nominated was just a catalyst for the fears that have accumulating for years, especially among the urban middle classes. Evidently, the demonstrating masses fear that secularism, the separation of state and religion, which has been a core principle of the Constitution since the founding years of the republic, is in danger.

Recently, a number of opinion research institutes have made an effort to quantify the number of those who perceive a threat to secularism. Approximately one fourth of the population assumes that such a danger exists. In the past few years AK Party politicians have stoked these fears with their policies.

Nobody has forgotten that while democratizing the Family Law, the AK Party tried to sneak in a criminal law paragraph that criminalized adultery. At the last moment the government backed down in the face of public indignation. Key positions in the bureaucracy have been filled with party members.

The impression has grown that party members whose wives wore headscarves were given precedence. Loyalty also became a main criterion with the appointment of school directors. The mass demonstrations were foremost a reckoning with this kind of politics.

A still quite repressive political system

The exclusion of the urban middle classes from politics has preprogrammed this conflict. During the first few years of the AK government, when democratic, political reforms and the rapprochement with the EU stood on the agenda, these classes did not seek confrontation with the governing party.

Stagnation in Turkey-EU relations and acceptance of the AK Party's continuation of a still quite repressive political system with an Islamicized content first opened the door for conflict.

It should not be forgotten that the hundreds of thousands who hit the streets with the slogan "We are all Armenians" after the assassination of the Armenian journalist Hrant Dink also regarded the AK government as accomplices of this political system.

And on May 1, trade unionists, who wished to commemorate the massacre of demonstrators on Taksim Square thirty years ago, were dispelled by police force. The political responsibility for this lies solely with the government, which appoints the governor and the police president.

The parliamentary system in Turkey is suffering from the 10 percent barrier for parliamentary elections – a relict of the constitution imposed by the military in 1982. As a result, in the elections of 2002 the AK Party with 34 percent of the votes ended up with a nearly two-thirds majority in parliament.

Forty-five percent of the voters were not represented in the parliament because their parties fell under the 10 percent barrier. Armed with a comfortable majority, the AK Party overestimated its influence and provoked the crisis.

"No sharia, no putsch"

Today the crisis has already yielded fruit. The military placed a "midnight declaration" in the Internet that indirectly threatened a putsch. This, however, was also widely rejected by the majority of those opposing the AK Party. "No sharia, no putsch" appeared on banners carried by demonstrators.

The military, which in the 1980 putsch had acted on the people's disappointment in the parliamentary system, has now become the target of the public. The proportion of women will be significantly higher in the next Turkish parliament.

Seeing that the mass demonstrations were supported predominantly by women, the AK Party decided to nominate more women to its lists of representatives. The other parties have followed suit. Along with the AK Party, the new Democratic Party, an alliance of two right-of-center parties which failed to achieve the 10 percent barrier in 2002, will also be courting the favor of the conservative camp.

And lastly, the Kurds, who also failed to clear the 10 percent barrier, will most likely make it into parliament this time around with independent candidates, which will make it possible for them to form a parliamentary fraction.

The elections will not bring about a radical breach in politics, but will contribute to a normalization of political representation.

Ömer Erzeren

Translated from the German by Nancy Joyce

Qantara.de

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