All against One?

The registration of candidates at the beginning of May in Iran launched the official start of an election campaign that has long been in full swing. Inflation, unemployment, and the profligate spending of windfall oil revenues have fuelled dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad's record.

In addition, the president's speech at the anti-racism conference in Geneva shows that he is navigating stormy waters on the international level as well.

Can Ahmadinejad succeed in being re-elected for a second term? It's high time for a change, claim his challengers from across the political spectrum, explaining the reason for their candidacy as "concern for the nation".

Political balancing act

The majority of reformist parties – including their original favourite, ex-President Khatami – now support Mir Hossein Mousavi. After a 20-year political hiatus, the former prime minister points to his successful leadership during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war.

He speaks to the interests of the rural population, clearly reaching out to Ahmadinejad's base of support. At the same time Mousavi has announced that he wants to ease restrictions in Iranian society: he wants to remove the 'moral police' from the streets and lift the ban on private television stations.

With this political balancing act the 67-year-old has placed his credibility in doubt for some of the electorate. Especially younger voters are alienated by his revolution-era vocabulary. Some Iranian bloggers debate whether Mousavi belongs to the reformist camp at all.

Mousavi himself calls himself a "reformist who adheres to the principles of the revolution", thus also seeking to connect with conservatives who call themselves "principlists". Indeed, there are some in this camp willing to support Khomeini's former prime minister.

Tailwind through Iran's reform movement

The views of the second reformist candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, appear to be much more concise. The 72-year-old cleric does not mince words when he speaks out in favour of strengthening civil rights or when attacking the ultra-conservative Council of Guardians for its interventions in elections.

Thanks to his persistence Karroubi has won the support of prominent people in the reformist movement. Support has also come from Iranian philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush, whose writings form the basis of the democratisation movement in the Islamic Republic.

At first there was talk of a unified alliance between the two reformers, but it now seems clear that both will remain in the race until the end. In the newspaper Etemad-e Melli, Vice President Mohammad Abtahi dismissed fears that the two would take votes away from each other: "Karroubi and Mousavi can each draw on the votes of different groups". A bigger voter turnout would increase the likelihood of seeing one of the two men in the second round of voting.

According to the law, a candidate must win more than half of the votes cast. If not, a run-off election between the two front-runners determines the winner. In a duel with Ahmadinejad the reformist candidates figure they have a good chance.

The dissatisfaction among the population could turn against the president. Journalist Akbar Montajebi even proclaimed in his weblog that the final decision could only be between Karroubi and Moussavi.

Subdued mood among the conservatives

The mood in the conservative camp, on the other hand, is subdued. The moderate principlists, who won a majority of seats in the last parliamentary election, have not yet voiced support for Ahmadinejad's re-election.

​​Parliamentary President Larijani and Tehran Mayor Ghalibaf – both outspoken critics of the president – have remained silent. Nor have the conservative clergy thrown their weight yet behind any candidate.

The only challenger from this fraction is Mohsen Rezai. The former head of the Revolutionary Guards has been highly critical of Ahmadinejad's mismanagement and foreign-policy provocations.

He has put forward the idea of a "coalition government", which would gather competent forces to bring the country out of crisis. The 54-year-old's chances, however, are dubious. Even his fellow conservatives are reserved in expressing their support.

The views of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution are also unknown. Khamenei long seemed to have a soft spot for the hot-headed president and had shown him his favour.

In recent months, however, Khamenei has repeatedly stated that he does not favour any candidate. But this does not necessarily mean he is distancing himself from Ahmadinejad. In 2005, Khameinei declared his support for a relatively unknown candidate only days before the election.

Ahmadinejad's will to win

Nonetheless, the prospects of the incumbent president – as well as his will to win – should not be underestimated. Ahmadinejad counts on the support of the powerful Revolutionary Guards and the Council of Guardians, whose supervisory task is to ensure that elections adhere to the constitution.

Ahmadinejad also has the state-run television on his side and accordingly receives more air time. Meanwhile, the president has embarked on another trip through the provinces where he is courting votes by handing out money from the treasury.

At the same time the Ministry of Interior is in charge of conducting the elections. Ahmadinejad has already placed several confidants here. Sweeping changes in staff have been observed in recent weeks, commented reformist politician Behzad Nabavi in an newspaper interview. Even local election committees in the electoral districts have now been filled with workers loyal to the government.

No wonder that there is growing concern over the fairness of the elections. Both reformist candidates have proposed forming an independent committee to monitor the election. In addition, Karroubi is highly sensitive to interference from the Revolutionary Guards.

Their chief recently proclaimed that the Bassij militia have the right to be politically active. During the last election Karroubi also protested against the influence exerted by military-affiliated organisations. In that election he barely missed the second round, running closely behind Ahmadinejad.

In view of all this political jockeying the response of the Iranian population has been rather restrained. According to reformist activist Abbas Badi, economic hardship as well as the unclear positions of the candidates has discouraged interest in the elections. Upcoming US-style television duels are sure to stir up more enthusiasm.

At the same time nobody currently wants to estimate the level of support for Ahmadinejad among the people. In the past Iranian voters have often surprised everyone. For the suspenseful finish we will have to wait until 12 June.

Marcus Michaelsen

© Qantara.de 2009

Qantara.de

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