A Triumph for Islamist Hardliners

In a surprise victory, Teheran's archconservative mayor Ahmadinejad has won the presidential election – in large part, Peter Philipp argues, due to low voter turnout and calls for a boycott on the part of Iranian dissidents in exile.

Before the presidential election Iran's conservatives repeatedly emphasized that a high voter turnout would prove how democratically the election was conducted, showing the world how unwilling Iranians are to question the system of the Islamic Republic.

Now they will have to do an about-face – turnout for the runoff was lower than for the first ballot. But it gave a stunning victory to a conservative, Teheran's mayor Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

Khameini's Protégé

Yet the conservative followers of the "supreme leader" Khameini will feel little need to do any explaining: the victory of the "leader's" 49-year-old protégé will now be spun as a logical continuation of the Islamist revolution which is supposed to help the poor and prune back the privileges of the rich.

With an unemployment rate estimated at over 40 percent, Iran has a vast host of people without work – far exceeding the host of multimillionaires in North Teheran. Now there are plans for subsidized housing, low-interest loans and other things to help the poor.

There can be no objection to that – if only these plans did not go along with the stated intent to reintroduce a stricter Islamic regime and increasingly nationalistic policies.

On the social level, this may threaten many of the freedoms which the Iranian middle class – not only the upper class – has created for itself over the years. The somewhat laxer dress code for women and an increased orientation toward a western lifestyle are only two examples.

An End to Reform, a New Policy of Isolation

And politically the impending hard line may have much graver consequences: Ahmadinejad has already announced that he will allow no one to dictate his atomic policy to him. The same position was taken by the lame-duck president Khatami and the defeated Rafsanjani.

However, both were open to diplomacy, while Ahmadinejad is certain to take a hard line which will propel Iran into international isolation once again.

This isolation, in turn, will threaten the economic projects which are necessary to create jobs and improve the standard of living. Iran cannot opt out on the global economy.

This is not altered by the fact that state revenue is at a record high due to the high price of oil. The oil must be sold, and in exchange the buyers – Europe and above all China – will want to sell products and services in Iran and to invest money there. They are unlikely to do so if it is ruled once again by an extreme Islamist and xenophobic regime.

Election Boycotters as Scapegoats?

Do the Iranians have themselves to blame? Only to a certain degree: on the one hand their low voter turnout reflected profound disappointment in Mohamad Khatami's failed reforms; on the other hand, however, the west deluged them with calls to boycott the election.

A peculiar coalition ranging from the White House to leftwing European circles, from supporters of the Shah to the leftwing Islamist "Mujaheddin", preached that this was not an election, but only the choice between two evils, between bad and worse.

Those who made these proclamations can now lean back comfortably in Washington, Paris, Berlin and London. They will not have to bear the consequences – the people of Iran will.

Peter Philipp

Translation from German: Isabel Cole