Competence Is Not Enough

Hamid Karsai has to please everyone. As he distributes government posts, it is not competence which decides which candidates should get the job; Karsai has to take account of various interests. Ratbil Shamel reports

The Afghan president Hamid Karsai is faced with the difficult task of forming a government. It's not that he doesn't have enough capable men and women at his disposal, but, in Afghanistan, that's not enough. The highly complex political situation in the country requires considerable sensitivity: in the case of each appointment, the interests of donor countries, Afghanistan's neighbours, the various elements in Afghanistan's own political power structure and the special considerations necessary for a multi-ethnic country all have to be taken into account

All these criteria have simultaneously to be kept in sight, and that's not easy. Under such circumstances, the issue of a candidate's competence tends to come at the end of the list. But President Karsai no longer has much time to find the right people for the jobs. In fact, the constitution requires the president to present his government to parliament at the latest thirty days after the parliament has been constituted.

That deadline passed long ago. Government sources now reassure enquiries with the information that the president will present his team to parliament within the next few days.

Karsai's room for manoeuvre is limited

Meanwhile, the mood in the country is bad. No-one is giving good marks to the government. The economy is marking time, the security situation is getting worse, and corruption is on the increase. The gap between rich and poor grows from day to day and only feeds the people's discontent.

Their only hope is a new government approved by parliament. It's for this reason that they are demanding the president appoints a completely new team. But that is easier said than done.

Shokria Barekzai, a Member of Parliament for Kabul, says that already in President Karsai's last term one could expect little from the government. She remains disillusioned: she says, "President Karsai has not succeeded in the last four years to put together an effective team, and he won't succeed this time, with the way the parliament is constituted."

Ms Barekzai does not believe that President Karsai has won any more room for manoeuvre. In building his government, he will still have to take account of the interests of the political powers in the country—mainly the warlords. Since some of them actually now have seats in parliament, the trend is likely to be reinforced.

Dangerous alliances of convenience

Karsai is to a certain extent dependent on the votes of the warlords. He has to pay them off politically and appoint for each of them at least one minister of their choice to his government.

In the long term, the president is relying on the support of traditionalists in parliament, although he has not been able to win their reliable support so far. Their call for more tradition and limits to democratic freedom does not accord with his view. But he is hoping for a compromise, and wants to present himself to them as an indispensable partner in power.

The members of parliament have voted down Karsai's proposal to approve the whole government in one go, and will instead vote on each minister independently. Shokria Barekzai believes the decision was purely a matter of political tactics. She says, "They want to keep the government under tight control, and make sure their own candidates are voted in."

Even if he wanted to, Karsai has no choice but to play the game. Although he has been elected by the people, he is still too weak politically to be able to challenge the warlords. He needs them and their private armies in the fight against the Taliban, and he knows only too well how dependent he is on them.

Dependent on foreign aid

Both financially and militarily, Afghanistan is dependent on its donor countries, above all on the USA. It is therefore no surprise that many of his current ministers have returned from exile in the USA. Among them is his finance minister.

In addition, the minister for mines, who is pushing a pipeline project with Uzbekistan, was a recommendation of the American oil industry. The head of the presidential office is "a reinforcement for the government from London," according to an adviser to the president who preferred not to be named.

Neighbours like Pakistan, Iran and, not least, Russia have to be considered. They have all spent years waging proxy wars in Afghanistan, and all have their own protégés in the country.

The Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, for example, has long criticised the lack of adequate Pashtun representation in the government. That has now been corrected.

The cabinet also includes some figures who are loyal to Moscow as well as others who are close to Teheran.

The jockeying for posts continues

Fahim Dashti, the publisher of the most popular weekly magazine in the country says that Karsai's room for manoeuvre is narrow, and he has to submit to many political constraints. All this is to the detriment of Afghanistan, since the work which really needs to be done remains neglected.

Although official sources refuse to comment, unofficial sources close to the government say that President Karsai will present his team to Parliament in the next few days. Until then, he's still looking. It is still not certain how many of the 25 ministers will be cut.

It is also uncertain whether, with a Pashtun chosen as defence minister, it will be a Tajik or another Pashtun who will be interior minister. One thing does seem certain: following a request by the European Union, two of the ministries will go to women, although it is not yet clear which religious minority or ethnic group they will represent.

Ratbil Shamel

Translated from the German by Michael Lawton

Qantara.de

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