K-Pop not Islam

More than 200 million people were entitled to vote and the ballots counted so far leave no doubt: Prabowo Subianto has won the election, capturing well over 50 percent of the vote. He's the ex-son-in-law of Indonesian dictator Suharto and, in his role as former general, is linked to accusations of various human rights violations during the 1980s and 1990s that have never been properly investigated.

This was Prabowo's third run at the presidential post. Twice, in 2014 and 2019, he lost to incumbent Joko "Jokowi" Widodo after bitterly fought campaigns. On those occasions, lurid populism, smear campaigns and deliberately placed fake news resulted in a polarisation of identity politics along confessional lines, which aroused fears among many.

Potential apocalyptic scenarios were suggested: Jokowi's buzzers – as political social media influencers are known in Indonesia – styled Jokowi as the defender of a secular, multi-religious Indonesian nation state, and evoked the spectre of an Islamist caliphate should Prabowo, supported by conservative and radical Islamic forces, be victorious.

Opposition unlikely to attract votes

For his supporters, the fact that Prabowo, an open secret, has little knowledge of religion and barely knows how to conduct daily prayers, was not worth a mention. Instead, they accused Jokowi of lacking in Islamic piety, even going as far as to suggest he had a Christian background. They posited the danger of de-Islamisation and moral and economic sell-out to the godless West.

Many were surprised that Jokowi, after his 2019 re-election, appointed his arch-rival Prabowo of all people to the post of defence minister. But in Indonesia there is a saying: "In politics there are no eternal enemies, just eternal power interests". The strategic integration of former opponents into one's own sphere of power is in line with Javanese pragmatism, which comes with its own positive associations.

Now, five years later, Prabowo stood for a third time, this time in the role of trusted continuator of Jokowi's politics – together with Jokowi's oldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as vice-presidential running mate. Opinion polls show that up to 75 percent of the population are happy with Jokowi's government; his policy of investment promotion and large-scale infrastructure projects is also popular with many voters. Opposition or the prospect of fundamental change was unlikely to attract votes at present.

Dance clips replace fake news

The contrast with the two last election campaigns could not be greater. On this occasion, we didn't hear words such as "kafir" (infidel), "Sharia", "Communist", "Caliphate", previously used to demagogically emotionalise the electorate and incite groups against each other. Even hardliners were reluctant to provoke, maintaining a low profile after both the Indonesian branch of the Islamist party Hizb ut-Tahrir and the radical FPI (Islamic Defenders Front) were banned under Jokowi.

The societal polarisation of recent years appeared forgotten, Islam and the populist exploitation of religious identity played a negligible role in the election campaigns of all three candidates. Rather than fake news and smear campaigns we were treated to entertaining dance videos on TikTok. Seventy-two-year-old Prabowo, once notorious for his authoritarian leadership style and irascibility, was presented as a cute dancing grandpa.

Instead of playing the aggressively populist opposition card, the two other presidential hopefuls, Anies Baswedan, former governor of Jakarta and ex-education minister and Ganjar Pranowo, who was governor of Central Java until September 2023, also adopted an upbeat approach on social media and the campaign trail. Ganjar and his running mate presented themselves as men of the people, appeared in Top Gun jackets and even got the popular rock band Slank to appear at a special campaign concert.

Moderate and cosmopolitan

On this occasion, Anies Baswedan managed to secure the support of the Islamist party PKS and other religious hardliners previously in Prabowo's camp. Back in 2017 and with their support, Baswedan won the governorship of Jakarta under massive instrumentalisation of a blasphemy case against his predecessor Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama, a Chinese-heritage Christian.

But now he too was purporting to be moderate, pluralist and cosmopolitan. His vice-candidate Muhaimin Iskandar came from the moderate, traditionalist milieu of the Islamic mass organisation NU (Nahdlatul Ulama), primarily based in rural East Java – which is certainly an affront to Baswedan's supporters from the Prosperous Justice Party or PKS, originally inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood.

With more than 40 million members and supporters, the NU is Indonesia's largest Islamic organisation. Most of its leading figures came out in support of Prabowo. But Anies Baswedan, who earned his doctorate in the US and was rector of the liberal Islamic Paramadina University, finds his voters not only in the PKS, but also among the urban, Western-orientated educated class. His rhetoric eloquence is lauded on the one hand; but on the other, many people see him as intellectually detached with a tone that is too academic and lecturing.

Social media election campaign for millennials and Gen Z

Millennials and Gen Z make up more than half of the electorate. Indonesia's youth is not only more consciously Islamic than previous generations – the now-mainstream headscarf is just the most obvious indication of this. Indonesia is also home to the largest K-Pop fan community. In keeping with the east Asian penchant for all things cute, Prabowo enchanted his fans with "joged gemoy“, "cute dancing“, and together with his vice-presential candidate, Jokowi's son, appeared on election posters in the form of cuddly, chubby-cheeked comic avatars.  

Baswedan launched an account "Anies Bubble“ on X and Instagram and used it to appeal specifically to Gen Z tastes by dialling down the intellectualism and channelling the style of K-Pop idols. This helped him achieve clear popularity gains and he overtook Ganjar Pranowo in the polls. As well as videos of their election campaign appearances, all three candidates filled their social media channels with music and dance clips, images of cats, loving family snapshots and moving scenes with ordinary people on the street – all ways to reach voters' hearts.  

Instagram, TikTok and X proved to be the perfect media for an election campaign based primarily on emotional personalisation. After all, political parties in Indonesia – apart from the PKS – don't really represent clear political-ideological directions. For the most part, they're little more than vehicles for the nomination of presidential candidates.

Ever-changing alliances and coalitions are guided by strategic considerations. The focus is on oligarchic negotiation and distribution of power, as well as the maintenance of patronage networks. This in turn deprives parties of the chance to hone their ideological profile. As a result, party loyalty within the electorate is weak: candidates' personalities are what matters most.

Unbothered by a dark past

Indonesian political scientist Robertus Robet describes it as a paradox: on the one hand, politicians in Indonesia are generally viewed with a very critical and even openly cynical eye. In the wake of so many scandals they're seen as corrupt and only interested in their own advantage and power gain.

On the other, Robet continues, there's also a genuine fan cult at work here, an idealisation of candidates and presidents who are loved as father figures beyond all reproach. This aligns with social media, where the focus isn't so much on political content but on which candidate is the most likeable in the moment.

Democracy and human rights activists were hoping for great things from Jokowi, yet they say the country's democracy has been significantly undermined by his two terms in office. Jokowi's presidency oversaw the partial disempowerment of the anti-corruption authority and a restrictive new penal code.

His son Gibran was only able to enter the race after the minimum legal age to do so was lowered – with the involvement of the Supreme Constitutional Court judge, who is Jokowi's brother-in-law. Within 10 years, the former furniture entrepreneur managed to establish a new family dynasty within Indonesia's oligarchy.  

There were protests, staged among others by students and prestigious universities. The exhaustive documentary film "Dirty Vote" on the deliberate undermining of election-related democratic institutions was published on YouTube just a few days before the vote. But most Indonesians seemed unbothered by all of this, just as they appear to have forgotten about Prabowo's dark past. As a TikTok video showing the avuncular ex-general bouncing about exhorted viewers: Jogetin aja – "just dance over it". 

Bettina David

© Qantara.de 2024

Translated from the German by Nina Coon