The spiral of violence escalates
Immediately after the swearing in of Iran's new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah was assassinated in Tehran – apparently by Israel. An embarrassment for the rulers in Tehran, a humiliation of historic proportions.
“Right next to the villa complex are the barracks of a special unit of the Revolutionary Guards called the ‘Pillars of the Mehdi’. It is responsible for protecting Ali Khamenei, his family and his most important guests.”
A few hours before his death, Ismail Haniyeh, the world's best-known face of Palestinian Hamas, sat in the office of Ali Khamenei, Iran's most powerful man. The usual security measures for such a visitor in such a place are beyond the imagination of mere mortals. Afterwards, the guest and his entourage were accommodated in a villa in the “living martyrs” district in the north of Tehran. This is the district where the best-protected officers of the Revolutionary Guards live. Right next to the villa complex are the barracks of a special unit of the Revolutionary Guards called the “Pillars of the Mehdi”. Although the Mehdi Group is not formally directly responsible for the protection of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family (this task falls to the Hefazat Vali Amr Group, a special unit within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards that is solely responsible for the security of the Supreme Leader), the Mehdi Group focuses on protecting special guests of Iran and possibly other high-ranking personalities.
We do not yet know how the Hamas leader was actually killed. A flying object killed Haniyya and his bodyguard shortly after midnight, the Revolutionary Guards said. A security expert in Washington suggests that a rocket was fired from an apartment across the street. Others say there was a bomb hidden in his room. Either way.
The fact that Israel was able to carry out such a spectacular operation in this part of the Iranian capital with such precision and success proves just how porous the Islamic Republic's security apparatus is.
To carry out an assassination attempt on such a person in one of the most heavily guarded places in Iran requires a huge amount of intelligence and enormous logistical and human resources. Insiders are certain that the necessary tips must have come from close to the most powerful man in Iran.
“The fact that Israel was able to carry out such a spectacular operation in this part of the Iranian capital with such precision and success proves just how porous the Islamic Republic's security apparatus is”
Unprecedented humiliation
This unprecedented humiliation is putting the regime in Tehran under existential pressure. The Islamic Republic sees itself – and is – as the coordinator of various militias in the region, which call themselves the "Axis of Resistance". If one of the most important leaders of these militias can be so easily killed in Tehran, in the supposedly secure coordination centre, it is a major embarrassment – especially to its own proxies from Syria to Lebanon and Iraq to Yemen.
Rahim Ghomeishi, a former guardsman and veteran of the Iran-Iraq war who has recently become a critical blogger, on Wednesday expressed the outrageous humiliation that Israel has inflicted on Tehran's rulers with the following words: "For ten months, Israel has ploughed up the entire earth of the tiny Gaza Strip and still fails to get hold of known Hamas leaders. But in the supposedly very safe big city of Tehran, it has no problem doing so. Can our rulers imagine the extent of this humiliation?”
“If one of the most important leaders of these militias can be so easily killed in Tehran, in the supposedly secure coordination centre, it is a major embarrassment.”
How did the Israelis do it? The Israeli agents have penetrated so deeply into the Iranian organs that they are capable of almost anything: the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, "sabotage in various industrial plants, the theft of explosive secret documents and much more". This was recently said by Ali Younessi, the former intelligence minister in Mohammad Khatami's cabinet and "special adviser" to ex-president Hassan Rouhani. He added: "Even the highest figures at the top of the state are not quite sure of their lives.”
Historical act
Israel could, if it wished, kill Haniyeh elsewhere, even in his home city of Doha in Qatar. The fact that it chose Tehran for this assassination carries innumerable messages and lessons. Before the audience with Khamenei, Haniyeh had been in the Iranian parliament with Ziyad Nakhaleh, the head of Islamic Jihad, and Naim Qassem, the second in command of Lebanese Hezbollah. They attended the inauguration of the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezeshkian.
Haniyya's violent death in Tehran is undoubtedly a historic act that will turn many things upside down in the Islamic Republic. Pezeshkian, the newly elected and sworn in president, came to power promising to open a new chapter in Iranian politics. Now he suddenly finds himself in a new world, a completely new situation, even a possible armed conflict with Israel.
Ali Khamenei promises to give Israel a "painful and unforgettable answer". Radical groups and voices such as the daily Keyhan demand that the revenge should go beyond Israel and include the United States.
“Pezeshkian, the newly elected and sworn in president, came to power promising to open a new chapter in Iranian politics. Now he suddenly finds himself in a new world, a completely new situation, even a possible armed conflict with Israel.”
Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas's representative in Tehran, openly and explicitly called on the Tehran rulers at Ismail Haniyeh's coffin: "As for the revenge of our martyr Haniyeh, we leave it to the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Qassam Brigades in Gaza. If the hands that killed our leader are not cut off, they will fire more rockets and kill more of our heroes," he said at the funeral rally in Tehran. And the New York Times reported on the same day that Ali Khamenei, in a special meeting of the National Security Council, had demanded that the Revolutionary Guards retaliate by targeting the cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv with missiles as soon as possible. The paper cited three senior military officers.
“Pezeshkian, like all presidents of the Islamic Republic before him, will have to bow to whatever comes from the house of the Leader.”
The new president now speaks differently
And suddenly the new president, who supposedly wanted to reconcile Iran with the world, is speaking a different language: "We will force the Zionist occupiers of Palestine, who killed our honoured guest here, to repent".
How he intends to make Israel repent, with virtually empty coffers and no support from the majority of the population, remains his secret – especially as he is not in a position to make important decisions, especially military ones. Pezeshkian, like all presidents of the Islamic Republic before him, will have to bow to whatever comes from the house of the Leader.
Ali Khamenei had already made this clear as normal before Haniyya's death, i.e. in "perfectly normal times": This is the essence of his system. A week before Pezeshkian's inauguration, he summoned the members of parliament and asked them to help the new president. He had literally added that the parliamentarians should make sure that all ministers were loyal to his system – the rule of the Supreme Jurist – "down to the roots of their teeth".
Shortly after his election victory, Pezeshkian appointed former foreign minister Javad Zarif to form a large commission from the country's various political groups and ethnicities. Women were to be included. Everyone was to compile and submit their ministerial proposals. Pezeshkian was officially elected president with only about a quarter of the vote. Half of the population stayed away from the ballot boxes. With the commission, he believed he could win some support for his new course beyond his voters.
“Shortly after his election victory, Pezeshkian appointed former foreign minister Javad Zarif to form a large commission from the country's various political groups and ethnicities. Women were to be included.”
These proposals had been presented in full to the president, Zarif announced a week ago. He did not mention any names. And Pezeshkian then said that he would go to the "Leader" with this list and, if he agreed, appoint the proposed people to his cabinet. In the past, however, Ali Khamenei has always made it clear that he alone decides on five ministerial posts: the foreign, interior, defence, intelligence and culture ministries.
But those were the so-called "normal times". In the face of a possible armed conflict with Israel, we have entered a new era.
© Iran Journal
Ali Sadrzadeh is a long-time Iran expert at the German public broadcaster Hessischer Rundfunk (hr). He has worked for DPA and Frankfurter Rundschau and has been with hr since 1984. Ali Sadrzadeh was public network ARD correspondent in North Africa from 1990 to 1994.