Boxed into a Corner

Pervez Musharraf has long been regarded as a master of playing his political opponents off against each other. Yet, how much support does the Pakistani president have after the storming of the Red Mosque? Thomas Bärthlein with a background report

President Musharraf struck a pensive note in his television address to the nation last Thursday, the day upon which military operations against the Red Mosque in Islamabad were completed.

This was not a moment of triumph, said the civilian dressed military ruler, but rather a day of mourning. "Now is the time for us to reflect and turn inwards," said Musharraf. "What do we as Pakistanis want to do – with ourselves, our country, and with our religion?"

There was no attempt to once again shift the blame on to the Americans, as was done after September 11, 2001. In his recent autobiography, Musharraf maintains that Washington made threats at the time.

Strong condemnation of the terrorists

This time, however, Musharraf strongly denounced the terrorists and their misuse of religion – and, at least, thereby expressed the opinion of a majority of Pakistanis. Up until now, there have been no large-scale protests against the military action in the country's urban centers.

He concluded by pledging decisive action by the security forces against extremists, especially those in the north-west region bordering Afghanistan, and more reforms of the country's Koran schools

The question is, however, does anyone still believes the president? Liberals in Pakistan have long since lost faith in him. They point out that the military has always harnessed militant Islamists, the Jihadists, for its purposes since back to the days of dictator Zia ul-Haq and the guerilla war in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union.

Links between the army and the mullahs

Asma Jehangir, head of the independent human rights commission in Pakistan, holds the view that the army and the mullahs maintain very strong and quite longstanding links.

"After the incident with the Red Mosque, the mullahs have gotten a message – carry out our work and do what we say and everything will be fine. But if you cross the boundary, even a little, then you will suffer!"

A greater threat for Musharraf is currently posed by civil society and the middle-class opposition, which accuses him of unlawfully removing a supreme court judge from his post – presumably to ensure his reelection in the fall. The result has been demonstrations lasting for months that have mobilized far more people than the storming of the Red Mosque.

Determination in the fight against extremists will do little to help Musharraf on this front, thinks Pakistani journalist Nusrat Javed. "For a time it will send the message that this time he is serious about dealing with the issue of extremism," says Javed, "but in terms of the president himself, I feel that he has lost his credibility."

Alienated allies

The Pakistan expert Husain Haqqani from Boston University believes that this time Musharraf may find himself boxed into a corner by employing his usual tactic of playing off all of his opponents against each other.

"The Pakistani military has alienated almost all significant forces in the country. The Islamists hate General Musharraf, as they see him as an American lackey. The liberals hate him for being a dictator, the Balochis for killing their leader, and the Pashtuns for stationing the army in their tribal area," explains Haqqani.

Even abroad, Pervez Musharraf has rarely seen such negative press as in these past days following the siege and storming of the Red Mosque.

Clinging to power

Although his most important ally, the United States, sees things differently and at least the Bush administration still values its alliance with the General, there are an increasing number of voices in Washington calling for free elections and democracy in Pakistan.

According to a long-circulating compromise proposal, Musharraf could even come to some kind of power-sharing agreement with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Husain Haqqani doubts, however, that the General recognizes the signs of the time. "I expect to see Musharraf clinging to power with all means at his disposal – fair and unfair. As a result, stability and the security situation in the country will come under far more pressure than ever before!"

Thomas Bärthlein

Translated from the German by John Bergeron

Qantara.de

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