What Trump's victory means for Iran
For many Iranians and some powerbrokers in the Islamic Republic, the 60th presidential election in the USA was more important than the presidential election in their own country. The president of the Islamic Republic has only limited influence on the country's foreign and security policy, which is strictly controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his advisers. Reform-minded presidents such as Mohammad Khatami and the incumbent, President Massoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly stressed that the president's primary role is to carry out the leader's orders.
Feigned indifference?
The Iranian government insists that the Islamic Republic does not care who wins the US elections. It has clear expectations of the next US president: it hopes for a return to a more respectful policy, one which respects the national sovereignty of other countries.
It is hard to imagine that Donald Trump will fulfil this expectation. During his election campaign, he repeatedly pointed out that although he was not seeking regime change in Iran, he would do everything to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
The Iranian regime will be able to live with that. But at least one other statement by Trump must have worried those in power in Tehran, and that was his answer to the question of how Joe Biden should have positioned himself regarding Israel's attacks on the Islamic Republic. Trump's view was that Biden should have recommended that Israel "hit the nuclear facilities [of Iran] first and then take care of the rest." Joe Biden had warned Israel against attacking Iran's nuclear and oil facilities.
The so-called Abraham Accords, which led to a normalisation of Israel's relations with Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, have always been a thorn in the side of the Islamists in Tehran, who have been working on plans for the destruction of the State of Israel for 45 years. These agreements have stalled since the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 and Israel's devastating response to it. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that Trump will continue to push for Israel to normalise relations with Arab countries, and that will weaken Iran's position in the region.
Ending the war
Trump's statements on his Iran policy have been brief or ambiguous, but according to his advisers, the 78-year-old is "crystal clear" on some issues. They claim he will act quickly to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The Islamic Republic is benefiting from both wars: through a closer rapprochement with Russia and as a result of the military conflict with Israel. By directly counter-attacking Israel, the regime can present itself as the "big brother" of the Palestinians, scoring points in the Islamic world. Military conflict also aids domestic peace within Iran; protests against the ever-increasing corruption, the ruined economy and political restrictions are sidelined by the threat of war.
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Who is celebrating?
Historically, Democratic US presidents have taken a softer stance towards the Islamic regime in Iran. The nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - JCPOA) was concluded during the Obama administration, and in the past four years Iran has been able to increase its oil sales tenfold. With the implementation of the JCPOA, Iranian oil exports initially rose to more than two million barrels per day. After the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Iran's oil exports shrank to less than 150,000 barrels per day. Biden's administration has tacitly allowed US sanctions against the Islamic Republic to be circumvented. These sanctions should theoretically also apply to the sale of Iranian oil. Secret meetings between the two governments have also taken place – most recently in Oman in May this year.
With Donald Trump's victory, those who hoped for a de-escalation between Iran and the USA are even less likely to see these hopes fulfilled. On the other hand, Iranian opposition figures and politicians in other countries are already rubbing their hands in glee, in the belief that Trump's presence in the Oval Office will hasten the fall of the Islamic regime.
But many observers are convinced that Trump's unpredictability may cause surprises on the international stage. It is also hard to predict how he will deal with the Islamic Republic. "Predictability is a terrible thing," Richard Grenell, one of Trump's closest allies, recently told the Financial Times: "Trump is unpredictable and we Americans like that."
©Iran Journal