Time to vote for Trump? How the Democrats are losing Arab voters

In the upcoming US election on Tuesday, Mohanad Gazzaley will be able to vote for the first time. He came to the USA from Yemen in 2018, aged just 15, and is now a US citizen. But Gazzaleyis yet to decide if he will even place his vote.

Gazzaley is unconvinced by both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, in particular their support for Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon. "I'm not going to vote for either of them because they're both against Palestine," he says at his workplace, a sports store in Hamtramck, Michigan.

Hamtramck borders directly on Detroit and many of its 27,000 inhabitants are Muslim, most of whom have come here from Yemen or Bangladesh. The Hamtramck city council is all-Muslim. Nowhere else in the USA has such a large proportion of voters of Arab descent as Michigan.Hamtramck is a compact case study reflecting a trend that can be observed across the country in the run-up to the election: Arab-Muslim voters, who have predominantly voted Democrat in recent years, are turning away from the party in light of the Democrats' support for Israel's war. Some of them are even leaning towards Trump and his Republicans.

If this crucial group of voters turns its back on the Democrats, it could spoil their chances of a local victory – and, in the worst-case-scenario, even cost them the presidency. Michigan, with its roughly 240,000 Muslims, of a population of 10.1 million, is a contested swing state where a few thousand votes could decide the election on November 5.

In his sports store, Gazzaley talks about the distressing pictures of killed children that he sees on his phone. "I have a lot of friends from Palestine, and some of them are here, and their families are suffering back there." He finds it contradictory that the USA supports Ukraine in its war of defense against Russia, but fuels Israel's attacks with weapons and diplomatic backing. If he goes to vote, Gazzaley says he would probably vote for a third party.

Israel responded to the Hamas attack on October 7 with an air and ground offensive that has killed over 40,000 people in Gaza. Israeli ministers and high-ranking politicians employed genocidal language to talk about the Palestinian civilian population. The government cut vital aid while the military destroyed large swathes of land. As a consequence, the International Court of Justice is now investigating accusations of genocide.

Immediately after the Hamas attack, US President Joe Biden expressed his sympathy to Israel and pledged his unwavering support. To this day, the Democratic government has not budged from this position. Harris, who had not commented much on foreign policy issues but whose position came into focus with her nomination as presidential candidate, has only slightly moved away from Biden's rhetoric in her few statements, putting some more emphasis on the suffering of Palestinian civilians.

However, the Democrats' repeated assurances of striving for a ceasefire have amounted to nothing. Israel's government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has showed no interest in a diplomatic solution and even extended the war into Lebanon. Nevertheless, the USA continued to supply billions of dollars worth of fighter jets and tank ammunition – which has stirred resentment towards the Democrats amongst Arabs and Muslims.

A Democrat for Trump

In Hamtramck, at the end of September, the quarrel took a new turn: the city’s Muslim mayor, Amer Ghalib, a member of the Democratic Party, endorsed Trump for president in a Facebook post. A month later, Trump travelled to Hamtramck, where he appeared with Ghalib and called his electoral endorsement an "honour". Ghalib said his community had a long history of disconnect from the Republicans, but it was time to move past that. He called Trump's visit a sign of “respect and appreciation for our community”.

Ghalib is not alone in this position. According to a recent poll, US voters of Arab descent are slightly favouring Trump over Harris, with 45 percent and 43 percent respectively. During the election campaign, Trump has repeatedly flirted with his supposed commitment to peace, claiming that he would quickly end the wars in the Levant and in Ukraine – without spelling out how he intends to achieve this aim.

Trump's relationship with Israel to date does not suggest that he would reign in the government in Jerusalem. The former president has a long relationship with Netanyahu and calls himself the "best friend that Israel ever had". 

During his time in office, the Trump administration declared that it no longer considered Israel’s construction of settlements in the occupied territories illegal per se under international law. In a highly symbolic act, Trump moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and officially recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, which is seen as illegal under international law. At home in the US, he relies on a following of evangelical fundamentalists who unconditionally support Israel and want to stir an escalation in the Holy Land to hasten the return of Christ.

On the war in Gaza, Trump said that Israel was losing the PR war, but also called for Israel to "finish what they started". Contradictory statements are part of his strategy. In conversations with people on the ground, one often hears talk about Trump's "unpredictability"  – after all, who knows whether he might not be better than the misery we’re currently facing?

Many Arab voters in the US seem ready to take that bet, all the while turning a blind eye to Trump’s racist statements. During the presidential debate, he referred to Joe Biden as a "Palestinian" – and meant it as an insult.

Will Trump impose a new travel ban?

Trump's campaign team has now opened a campaign office in Hamtramck. It was also here that the candidate met with Mayor Ghalib. The walls are plastered with Trump photos and advertising signs. "Vote Peace, Vote Trump" reads one.

Sam Alasri is paying a visit to the pop-up office. He is leading the Yemen American Political Action Committee (YAPAC), which represents the political interests of Yemeni-Americans. In 2020, the organisation encouraged people to vote for Joe Biden. This year, the YAPAC endorses Donald Trump.

Alasri is wearing a blue and gray suit, a gold belt buckle and gold-rimmed glasses. Why does he think Trump would be better for the Palestinians? "We discussed it with him," says Alasri about the war, "and he said: ‘this is my first priority and I need to stop it’."

There is very little talk about Trump’s 2017 decision to ban people from Muslim-majority countries, including Yemen, from entering the US. During the election campaign, Trump has said he would reinstate the travel ban.

Alasri says that there are people around him who are afraid, asking "what if he did the travel ban again against us?" He also calls the ban "wrong". However, Alasri thinks the concerns are exaggerated: "I think Trump likes to talk a lot", he says. Alasri wants to stay in contact with the Republican candidate to influence him if he is elected.

A few days later, at the end of October, Trump holds a rally in Michigan. Alasri stands next to him on stage, along with other representatives of the Muslim and Arab community who support Trump's candidacy.

Shared conservative values

Beyond Israel and Gaza, Arab voters in the USA are also concerned about other issues that are turning them away from the Democrats. In conversations, one hears again and again about the price of food and gasoline as well as the skyrocketing cost of rent.  

In the sports store in Hamtramck, Mohanad Gazzaley says that many of his friends want Trump to return, mainly because the economy was doing better under him. For Gazzaley, it is only Trump's stance on Israel and Palestine that prevents him from voting for the Republican.

The Republican Party also draws from the conservative attitude of some Arabs and Muslims in the US, who think more traditionally on social issues than most Democratic voters. Last year, the all-Muslim (and all-male) Hamtramck City Council was criticised for banning the display of the Pride flag on city property. 

"We care about our family values," says Alasri. He calls some of the Democrats' positions on gender issues "terrifying". That he has in common with Trump. During his appearance in Hamtramck, Trump praised Mayor Ghalib for rejecting men from participating in women's sports and undergoing transgender surgeries. "I think for the most part, the Arab world isn’t into that, and I’m not into that either. But the radical left is totally into it."

But it's not just conservatives. Some of their progressive supporters are also turning away from the Democrats. Left-wing Arab Americans, many hailing from Michigan, have gathered behind the Uncommitted movement, which called for people to vote "uncommitted" in the Democratic presidential primaries in protest against the party’s Israel policy. The movement received over 700,000 votes nationwide.  

However, at the Democratic nominating convention in Chicago in August, the party establishment refused to grant representatives of the movement even the briefest of speaking slots. This meant that Arab Americans were the only relevant group whose pain and political concerns could not be voiced.

TheUncommitted Movement has since come out clearly against Trump, but it notably does not endorse Kamala Harris for president either. The Democrats are thus faced with a home-grown crisis that could be their undoing when voters are called to choose in Tuesday’s election.