Success Story with Hidden Flaws
In November 2008, the Algerian constitution was changed to allow the president to stand for a third term – something that had not been possible prior to the amendment. Cynics maintained at the time that the biggest obstacle to his re-election had thus been removed, seeing the amendment as more significant than the election itself, which took place on 9 April this year.
Much like the previous two presidential elections, the results of this one were also disputed, with bitter accusations of election fraud. On 13 April, the Algerian Supreme Court dismissed forty-seven such claims, clearing the way for the announcement of the official election results on 14 April, according to which Bouteflika received 90.23 per cent of the vote. The remaining crumbs were divided up among the five other candidates, who were widely described in the media as the president's "sparring partners".
Wooden urns
Doubts over the genuineness of the election results will remain for some time. At a press conference on 10 April, the day after the elections, a Spanish journalist put the Algerian interior minister Yazid Zerhouni on the spot, seriously embarrassing him. She asked why Algeria doggedly continued to use wooden urns, whose contents cannot be seen, whereas transparent urns are used everywhere else in the world, with voting slips placed in sealed envelopes.
Zerhouni answered evasively, became defensive and switched languages several times during his response. The subtext was clear to all present: countless observers suspect that many of the filled-in voting papers were already in the urns when they were brought to the polling stations.
However, given the lack of a serious opposition candidate, most observers also realised that Bouteflika was very likely to win anyway. Many of the major parties either supported Bouteflika and entered his "presidential coalition" (such as the historic National Liberation Front, the FLN; or the institutional Islamist party MSP-Hamas, linked to the Muslim Brotherhood), or chose to withdraw from the presidential elections altogether, as was the case with two opposition parties based in the Berber region of Kabylei, the FFS and RCD.
Astonishing increase in voter turnout
Most observers also believe that Bouteflika's victory is genuine and that his margin has simply been exaggerated.
That being said, serious doubt has been cast on the voter turnout figures; most independent commentators see them as blatantly exaggerated. Luis Martinez, for instance, a researcher at the CERI Institute, author of several in-depth, analytical books and publications, with extensive knowledge of Algeria, recently published La peur de la démocratie au Maghreb (April 2009).
In it he points out that even in the period of democratic euphoria in 1990 and 1991 (not long after the collapse of the one-party state led by the FLN at the end of 1988), voter turnout never rose above 40 or 50 per cent. This makes it even less credible that it is now officially rated at 75.5 per cent.
Controlling the terror
The fact that Bouteflika could be certain of success even before voting began is down to two important factors. Firstly he came to power in 1999 at a time when the armed Islamists had effectively already lost the civil war. Their defeat was partly due to the fact that their military methods and strict moral standards alienated them from exactly those members of the underclass who had initially been on their side.
Despite the fact that there are still isolated, high-profile attacks (for which "Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb" (AQMI) claims responsibility), Bouteflika is widely given credit for the dramatic reduction in bloodshed in urban centres over the last ten years.
The AQMI is the umbrella under which the last remaining armed Islamists in Algeria have banded together. Their number is currently said to be about 400. At the height of the civil war in 1995 the number of armed Islamists was estimated at 27,000.
Overflowing coffers, repaid debts
Bouteflika has also benefitted hugely from the price of oil. A barrel of crude cost less than US$10 on the world market when he first took office; at the height of its price-inflation, a year and a half ago, it rose to US$175; it has since returned to around US$40.
This unusual stroke of luck – from the perspective of the governments of oil-producing countries – means that the Algerian state is sitting on brimming coffers. Its currency reserves are said to be worth around US$140 billion. While 15 years ago the country was begging international financial institutions for credit extensions and was forced to submit to draconian requirements, today it has paid off almost all its debts.
In this situation it is not exactly hard to make gestures of apparent social benevolence at judicial moments. Indeed Bouteflika's "success story" has hidden flaws. It is based solely on siphoning off the profits from crude oil, on which the Algerian state is still wholly dependent.
Independence from imports and foreign supplies
In its state-socialism phase of the 1970s, the country attempted to break away from this dependence; oil profits were to be re-invested in an attempt to ensure more autonomous economic development. Today, however, things have developed differently. Algeria is more dependent than ever on imports and foreign supplies when it comes to food and medication. The consequences of a fall in the global price of raw materials do not bear thinking about!
The most significant thing Bouteflika wishes to bequeath to his people and posterity is a gigantic new mosque; with space for 20,000, the world's largest mosque is currently being built in Algiers at a cost of US$3 billion.
It may be that Bouteflika sees himself as the initiator of an almost messianic project. Many people assume that the president, who underwent emergency surgery in 2005 in Paris and only just survived, is not in good health. His final term in office could turn out to resemble an obituary written by himself. Who or what will follow him is not at all clear.
The millstone of authoritarianism
The journalist Florence Beaugé who has observed developments in Algeria for over twenty years, writing first for Libération in Paris, later for Le Monde, believes that Algerian society has grown increasingly religious and conservative in recent years.
Basing her findings on studies carried out recently by academic institutions, she concludes that attitudes to equality between men and women have deteriorated in recent years. Only 20 per cent of male Algerians approve of women going to work - a notable decline from the situation as it stood a few years ago.
At the same time, however, women are increasingly becoming employed in new areas: in recent years, the public has seen the country's first female bus driver, first policewoman on patrol, first female truck driver etc.
Algerian society is full of contradictions, but it is weighed down by the millstone of authoritarianism at all political levels. How long this will ensure stability remains to be seen.
Bernard Schmid
© Qantara.de 2009
Bernard Schmid is a freelance journalist based in Paris. He works for a range of German media.
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