Turkey at the crossroads

It began with a viral video: Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, fastening a tie around his neck, tells the camera how hundreds of police officers came to his home early in the morning to arrest him. 

The charges were supporting terrorism, dropped shortly afterwards, and corruption. A day earlier, based on an allegedly illegal university transfer, Istanbul University had revoked his degree, a prerequisite for him to run for president in Turkey. 

The scale of the mass protests that broke out in cities across the country in response probably took everyone by surprise, including the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey's largest opposition party.  

Since 19 March, tens of thousands have taken to the streets repeatedly—every day in the first few weeks, now every Wednesday in Istanbul and every weekend in a different city. Protests have even taken place in cities that were considered strongholds of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), including most recently in Samsun on the Black Sea coast and Yozgat in Central Anatolia. 

"Rights, law, justice"

Assembly bans, tear gas, water cannons, arrests—nothing deters demonstrators who have come together across generations and political orientations to demand "Hak, Hukuk, Adalet" ("rights, law, justice"). Young people between 20 and 30 take centre stage, a group Erdoğan would have liked to see grow up as a "religious generation" according to his social project. 

But for Generation Z, who have never known any political leader other than Erdoğan, the arrest of the most powerful figure in the founding party of the republic, the CHP, is the straw that broke the camel's back. For this generation in particular, prospects have narrowed in recent years. "Nepotism", they say in surveys, is one of Turkey's biggest problems. Many people, particularly academics, are joining the brain drain and leaving the country. 

With backs to the wall, many see no other option but to flee. 300 people were remanded in custody over Eid in April. "Completely absurd" was how the lawyer Bedia Büyükgebiz, talking to the news portal Medyascope, described the charges levelled against them: "participation in illegal demonstrations" and "concealing the face" to avoid facial recognition software, which is not actually punishable with a prison sentence. 

"A coup against the will of the nation"

"Turkish society has a completely new face today", political scientist Berk Esen from Istanbul's Sabancı University tells Qantara. Demographics and education play a decisive role. "For the first time, 85% of the population is urban," says Esen. "Young people have a higher level of education than their parents, but are more concerned about their future."

According to Esen, social categorisations such as religious affiliation or ethnicity used to play a greater role. "Today, everyone feels the pressure of the government equally throughout the country, in their everyday lives, in their education. They are all equally affected by unemployment, the weak economy and the lack of opportunities on the labour market."

At least İmamoğlu and the Istanbul municipality offered some concessions, for example, by introducing transport subsidies. Now, young people are forming networks and taking to the streets in reaction to the immediate challenges they face.

For many, the current wave of demonstrations and boycotts brings back memories of the 2013 Gezi protests. Some protesters hold signs reading: "We were still children at Gezi. Now we've grown up."

The comparison only holds up to a certain extent. The AKP is not as strong as it was back then. Since 2018, it has only been able to secure a political majority through a coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). At the local level, the CHP has held a majority in the country since the election of March 2024. 

And when CHP leader Özgür Özel talks today of a "political coup against the will of the nation", it is an attempt to reclaim the narrative of "representing the will of the people", that Erdoğan has monopolised for decades. 

15 million people in solidarity

"The Gezi protests were mainly driven by CHP supporters, following the lines of polarisation set by the AKP," says Berk Esen. In contrast, today's protests are far more inclusive, with people from all groups in society, including conservatives and nationalists. 

The symbols at the protests cover the entire ideological spectrum—from the wolf salute of the ultranationalists to the flags of the Turkish Labour Party (TİP)—but the people are united by a shared frustration. For over a month now, they have taken to the streets wrapped in a sea of red Turkish flags because the economic crisis, rising living and housing costs, inflation and unemployment, as well as a lack of confidence about their future, affect them all.  

Human Rights Watch sees the imprisonment of Istanbul's mayor as only the latest example of the judiciary being used as a weapon to remove a leading opposition politician from the political stage. This opinion is shared by a large proportion of the population, surveys show. Around 15 million people cast a solidarity vote in favour of İmamoğlu's release—around one in five people in Turkey. 

Analysts see the protests as a result of Erdoğan's failed plan to portray his main rival as a criminal and provoke a power struggle within the CHP. Instead, the divided CHP leadership has united behind its leader Özel and all those who oppose the regime under his umbrella. 

A democracy in name only

Turkish artist Özge Samancı is following the developments in her homeland from the USA, where she lives and works. Her latest graphic novel "Evil Eyes Sea", which has won numerous awards, is about two female students who stumble upon a crime while diving in Istanbul in the 1990s. It portrays an atmosphere of political corruption, religious pressure and economic instability.  

The parallels to today cannot be overlooked. "Although the political figures in the novel are fictional, the core of the story is about life amid political hopelessness. Anyone who has lived through the 23 years of AKP rule in Turkey knows this hopelessness very well," says Samancı, whose book will soon be published in German. 

The repression of today reminds her of the period following the 1980 military coup. "We are living in a time when people are imprisoned simply for opposing the regime. Students, journalists, artists and scientists are imprisoned, and no one in power is held accountable.” 

"As the economy collapses, the government becomes increasingly repressive, driven by a fear of losing its authority. In name, it is a democracy, but it feels more like a monarchy," says Samancı. 

While it is important that people from across society revolt, Samancı argues, it is equally vital that young people do not neglect their education. That would play into the hands of the populists, she says, because educated people generally don't vote for leaders who "flaunt their power, lie, distort the truth and constantly propagate a 'me, me, me' narrative."

An authoritarian system with competitive elements

For political scientist Esen, Turkey has long been an authoritarian system with competitive elements. For him, the country now stands at a crossroads. Should the opposition buckle or fail, the authoritarian regime would become even more powerful and the elections scheduled for 2028 would not change anything. 

Alternatively, the opposition could find ways to maintain social pressure until the climate of fear is overcome. In that case, students would riot at the universities, people would take to the streets, protest and continue to boycott companies close to the government. But Esen warns that the government will keep ramping up the pressure in order to stifle the protests. 

History shows that top-down attempts to impose a status quo have never lasted in the long term. So far, protests have persisted despite police harassment and violence. Most recently, they have even spread to secondary schools, where students are protesting against the suspension of teachers who joined the demonstrations. 

This article is an edited translation of the German original.