Detained but defiant

Istanbul's charismatic mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu—widely seen as the strongest challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—was detained in a dramatic dawn raid on his home on 19 March. The raid came just a day after his university diploma was revoked and days before he was set to be named presidential candidate for the Republican People's Party (CHP). 

In a written statement, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office called İmamoğlu the "leader of a profit-driven crime syndicate," a label usually reserved for the mafia. He and 99 other suspects were detained on charges of embezzlement, bribery, aggravated fraud, unlawful acquisition of personal data and rigging public tenders.

İmamoğlu and six others were also accused of terrorism-related offences. Prosecutors claim that cooperation between the CHP and the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) in the 2024 local elections was orchestrated at the demand of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey, the U.S., and the EU classify as a terrorist organisation. 

Legal experts stress the significance of the terrorism investigation, warning that it could set the stage for the appointment of an unelected trustee as mayor of Istanbul.

Since the 2024 local elections, nine mayors have been removed from office on terrorism charges and replaced by trustees. On 18 January, following the arrest of Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat—also from the CHP—Erdoğan warned that more dismissals could follow. CHP leader Özgür Özel responded defiantly, calling it "a declaration of war."

Commenting on İmamoğlu’s detention on Wednesday, Özel accused Erdoğan of "orchestrating a coup against his rival, who he thinks will defeat him."

A state of emergency in Istanbul

As police launched early-morning raids to detain İmamoğlu and others, the Istanbul governorate imposed a four-day ban on demonstrations. Access to X, Instagram, and YouTube was restricted, while WhatsApp functions were deliberately slowed.

Public transportation and key roads to central locations like Taksim and Fatih—where İmamoğlu is being held—were shut down. Yet, by Wednesday evening, thousands had gathered in front of the Istanbul municipality headquarters, chanting slogans like "Tayyip to jail, Ekrem out!" and "There is no salvation alone—either all together or none of us!"

Following the detentions, both the stock market and the Turkish lira plunged. Experts suggest the government is trying to mitigate the losses through backdoor interventions—primarily by depleting the Central Bank's national reserves—a move that is expected to exacerbate inflation and deepen the country's prolonged economic crisis.

Who is Ekrem İmamoğlu?

Before December 2018, when he was announced as the CHP's candidate for mayor of Istanbul, very few people knew İmamoğlu's name. He was serving as the mayor of Beylikdüzü, a rapidly developing district on the outskirts of Istanbul, a seat he won in 2014 with a 12-point lead over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had governed the district for a decade. 

In the runup to the 2019 local elections, the CHP set up a party commission to identify a winning candidate for mayor of Istanbul. It outlined a specific profile: a 45–55-year-old man with experience in local governance, a record of success, a non-partisan stance, respect for religion and roots in the Black Sea region—home to a significant portion of Istanbul's electorate.

İmamoğlu was a perfect fit. Born in 1970 near Trabzon, a prominent city in the Black Sea region, he came from a devout family. As head of the CHP's Beylikdüzü branch, a position he won in 2009, he regularly attended Friday prayers and organised memorial prayers on 10 November for Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey. 

His religious background stood out against the image of the staunchly secular CHP politician, but he ran an energetic campaign to be Istanbul's mayor under the CHP banner. As a relative unknown, he made a name for himself by going door to door, personally introducing himself to voters.  

His popularity soared when, following a terrorist attack on a mosque in New Zealand in March 2019, he recited verses from the Quran from memory for the victims at a historic Istanbul mosque. By bringing a Kurdish interpreter with him, he managed to extend his reach to Kurdish voters as well as to the religious and Black Sea electorate. 

His inclusive approach, in opposition to the polarising rhetoric of the AKP, helped him to ultimately beat his rival Binali Yıldırım by a margin of 13,729 votes. But the ruling AKP struggled to accept the results. On 6 May 2019, Turkey's Supreme Election Council annulled the Istanbul mayoral election and ordered a rerun.

That evening, before addressing a massive crowd that had gathered in front of the Istanbul municipality headquarters, İmamoğlu performed what would become his signature gesture.

He took off his jacket, loosened his tie, rolled up his sleeves, and declared: "Our journey is long, our excitement is high and we are young. We are the Turkish youth—thirsty for justice, deeply committed to democracy. And we will never give up."

Destined for the presidency?

While campaigning for the June 2019 rerun, İmamoğlu hinted at his long-term aspirations. "God knows" was his response when a BBC interviewer asked if he would be Turkey's next president. On 23 June 2019, he won the rerun, this time by a landslide, securing nearly 800,000 more votes and a nine-point lead over his opponent.

Ahead of the 2023 presidential elections, İmamoğlu was seen as a potential candidate but was prevented from running by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, then CHP leader. The election ended in a victory for Erdoğan and the AKP. 

In the wake of electoral defeat, İmamoğlu led a transformation in his party, calling for optimism and emphasising the need for reform. He gradually gained more influence within the party and ignited the process for a change in the party's leadership structure.

In the 2024 local elections, CHP became the leading party for the first time since the 1970s. İmamoğlu won over 51% of the vote to retain the Istanbul mayoralty by an unprecedented margin, emerging for many as the natural leader of the opposition.

A turbulent political rise

However, as İmamoğlu gained political strength and emerged as a potential challenger to Erdoğan, obstacles began to mount against him.  

In 2022, he was sentenced to two and a half years in prison for insulting public officials, in connection to a 2019 speech in which he allegedly called members of the Supreme Election Council "idiots". He defended himself by stating that the comments were addressed only to then-Minister of the Interior, Süleyman Soylu, who had called İmamoğlu a fool.

He has faced repeated legal challenges related to his university degree. According to the Turkish Constitution, a degree is a prerequisite for running for the presidency. İmamoğlu started his degree in Cyprus but later transferred to Istanbul University. A legal investigation was launched against him earlier this year on the grounds that his transfer was unlawful. His diploma was revoked on 18 March—reportedly under pressure from the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. 

On 23 March, the CHP was scheduled to hold a primary election to determine the party's candidate for the upcoming presidential election, which has been tentatively scheduled for 2028.

The primary was expected to provide İmamoğlu with a political shield. The CHP believed that the government would not dare to target İmamoğlu once he had been nominated through a democratic vote by the people. Now, just days before the primary, he is in custody.

"I won’t give up!"

Despite his detention and the annulment of his diploma, İmamoğlu will still be on the ballot in the CHP primary. To bolster his candidacy, the party has also set up a second, nationwide vote to highlight his broad public support.

The CHP and İmamoğlu are not backing down from their presidential ambitions—in part because they have a powerful historical precedent in mind.

In 1994 a politician was elected as mayor of Istanbul with around 25% of the vote—far less than İmamoğlu secured decades later. At the time, he also faced corruption investigations. In 1998, he was sentenced to four months in prison and banned from politics for inciting hatred. But, as always, Turkish politics moved quickly. Just four years later, in 2003, that same politician became prime minister and the corruption investigations were dropped. That man is now Turkey's president—Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. 

İmamoğlu, the man who symbolically rolled up his sleeves to mark the beginning of his political fight, is seen calmly adjusting his tie in a video message recorded the morning of his detention. With a determined expression, he declares:  

"We face great bullying, but I want you to know that I won't give up! I love you all very much. I entrust myself to my people."