Musharraf Loses His Nerve

​​Since March he has been involved in a power struggle with the Supreme Court - he first suspended the Chief Judge and then had to reinstate him against his will. He went along with the rumours and threats of emergency rule, whilst the United States insisted increasingly upon the democratisation of Pakistan.

The general promised to give up his uniform after his re-election and even allowed the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to return. Many had started to imagine her as head of government under a civilian President Musharraf.

In the past few days, the rumours abounded. There was the question of whether Musharraf's re-election at the beginning of October was legal or not. The threats of emergency rule were supposed to convince the judges to rule in favour of the president.

Musharraf's motives

But just a few days before the ruling, Musharraf seems to have lost his nerve. Maybe he had information that the verdict would go against him. Or he simply couldn't take it anymore that he was so dependent on the court.

But this time the general has made a miscalculation. His trump card is no longer enough. There will be massive resistance against him; first from the judges, the lawyers and then the media which he can't keep switched off forever.

He is also forcing political parties, including Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party, to take a position against him; and he cannot contain the growing resentment among the people for much longer. Musharraf is also likely to lose the esteem many Pakistanis still hold for him.

Musharraf's achievements, and old tricks

Without a doubt, he did achieve much for Pakistan – regarding reconciliation with India, the opening of the media and the liberalisation of society and also economic development.

​​Musharraf is surely counting on the fact that the west, at least the US government, will accept his move, even if reluctantly. He's using old tricks, which have worked ever since September 11, – punctually, on the one hand, the Pakistani army cracks down on radical Islamists, as it did over the past few days against a Taliban-linked grouping in Swat in the Northwest.

Whereas, on the other hand, there is the suspicion that the government shuts both eyes when the militants organise and arm themselves. How else was it possible that the radical Red Mosque, which was stormed by troops in the summer, was full of weapons – and this in the heart of Islamabad, under the eyes of all the secret services...

"Don't fall for Musharraf's line"

These double tactics are first supposed to suggest to the international audience that the danger posed by the radicals is greater than it actually is and secondly that the army offers the only reliable protection against these Islamists taking power.

But the west should now clearly distance itself from Musharraf. Nothing would be more wrong and dangerous now than to fall for his line. It would only serve to aggravate the already widespread anti-American and anti-western voices within the population. If Musharraf doesn't yield soon, the religious parties will portray themselves as the democratic opposition.

It makes sense now to support the liberal forces within the legal system, the media, civil society and political parties, which have gained in strength over the past few months. Only a democratic Pakistan can overcome extremism effectively and enduringly.

Thomas Bärthlein

© Deutsche Welle 2007

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