Walking the Tightrope

The foreign secretary level talks between India and Pakistan, scheduled for July 20, were scrapped, at least for the time being. That does not mean that the peace process has reached the end of its tether, but it certainly needs a somewhat broader foundation, says Thomas Bärthlein.

The day after. Strangely enough, there was not the slightest hint of a possible derailment on July 12, when the Indian government was heard to declare that the terrorists had tried to do just that - derail the peace process. Despite the blasts, it was said, the confidence building measures would continue.

One realizes that tightrope walking is a risky business only seconds before the fall, as experienced trapeze artists tell us. So far as Indo-Pak relations are concerned, we haven't had anything but good news for the past three years.

The pressure of public opinion

Even the serial blasts in New Delhi last year only led to greater cooperation in quake relief in Kashmir, in a kind of reverse demonstration to the terrorists. The post-Mumbai scenario is the first major setback as such. The pressure of public opinion, especially as reflected in the media, simply didn't allow business as usual on the CBM front.

Scrapping the foreign secretary level talks might assuage public anger, but nobody in New Delhi seems to be sure about the next step. India will have to stipulate the conditions under which it is ready to return to the round table.

And that's not going to be easy, considering that the Mumbai probes haven't yielded any definite pointer in the direction of "Lashkar-e-Taiba" – at least tolerated by Pakistan on its territory, in the New Delhi scheme of things.

Fundamental weakness

Quite apart from such considerations, the present crisis manages to highlight the weak points of the ongoing peace process, despite all its successes such as the ceasefire in Kashmir, first and foremost, or whatever has been done to promote people to people contacts, especially by way of travel opportunities including the de facto opening of the line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir.

And still the total impression of the last three years of peace-making is one of caution and timidity, rather. A neutral observer wouldn't be under any illusion that the big deal, a major breakthrough was within reach.

Apparently the distrust on either side was simply too stultifying for anyone to venture a genuine compromise. And it's this very dilly-dallying which might be said to have led to the present situation, making the whole peace process so vulnerable to sniper fire.

Missed opportunities

The past three years have been littered with missed opportunities. "Siachen", for example, is a problem whose solution would have benefited all and sundry: a glacier at a height of 6,000 meters atop which Indian and Pakistani troops keep their lonesome vigil – on a purportedly unsettled boundary.

This senseless conflict in permafrost above costs human lives – and millions of rupees, every year. Despite specific talks on the issue, demilitarization, the simplest solution, is still a far cry.

The Indian government has finally signalled the readiness to talk to the separatists in Kashmir who are directly or indirectly supported by Pakistan – a laudable decision, considering that it was taken in the face of opposition from hard-liners.

But the hearts of Kashmiri's could have been won over more easily by stringently checking the human rights violations by the Indian army in Kashmir. As it is, the timid response failed to silence the sceptics in Kashmir, who naturally smelt deception.

The battle against terror in Pakistan has been faring no better. An organization like the "Lashkar-e-Taiba" might have been banned, but that's at random and not as part of a system, not to speak of an educational policy which would come anywhere near drying up the radical madrassa's.

If the peace process is to carry on and achieve its ends, both sides must send clear signals and show the preparedness to make compromises which constitute the real confidence building measures. But what we get is bigotry and the blame game.

Their own business

Perhaps an external impetus could do the trick, as in the case of the USA, which managed to bring the Indians and the Pakistani's to the round table back in 2003.

This was preceded by much nuclear tough-talking in 2002, and the Americans had a clear diplomatic stake in maintaining good relations with both countries, for the battle against global terrorism, on the one hand, and to 'contain' China, on the other. And Washington is displaying the first signs of unease at the new standstill in South Asia, we hear.

To make peace between the Indians and the Pakistani's is neither the business, nor within the capacity of the Americans. Now is the time for civic society in both countries to oppose the hawks in media and politics and demand more courage as well as persistence in the peace process.

Thomas Bärthlein

Qantara.de

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