Dampened Hopes for Democratic Change

Although independent candidates have been admitted to the race for the first time this year, a large portion of the Egyptian population still harbors doubts about the potential of the elections for bringing change. By Veit Medick

When Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced an amendment to the constitution this February allowing both party-affiliated and independent candidates to take part in presidential elections alongside the current incumbent, this move was greeted as a sensation in many quarters.

The unexpected announcement sparked astonishment and hope, and not only in Egypt. International observers also interpreted this step as a milestone on the way toward free, democratic elections. However, this initial excitement did not last for long.

Constitutional amendment as political survival stratagem

Rumors soon spread that this change in the constitution was nothing more than a clever trick on the part of Mubarak to ensure another six years in office, thus extending his term to a grand total of 30 years. Moreover, the step was widely attributed to the effect of international pressure on the Egyptian ruler.

At the same time the opening up of the political arena was announced, the crack-down on demonstrations launched by domestic protest movements was harsher than ever, a development that continued up to the beginning of the elections. While some citizens now have serious doubts about the honesty of the reform intentions in the Mubarak administration, others claim that the constitutional amendment should not be underestimated as a step toward political liberalization.

Ten parties have nominated candidates, including young Ayman Nur, one of Egypt's most prominent intellectuals. Despite the anticipated futility and manipulation of the elections, few parties have called for a boycott. The official campaign phase has been underway since August 17th.

Mubarak omnipresent

It's true that the scene on the street leaves little doubt as to who is going to receive the lion's share of public attention: walls of posters and banners sporting the visage and campaign slogans of incumbent President Mubarak adorn nearly every street corner. Nevertheless, many recent developments seem to indicate nascent transformation in the political atmosphere: candidates have their own newspapers and are canvassing the country day after day, giving interviews and appearing on television. Websites created especially for the elections are no longer a rarity.

On Saturday a resolution was reached that the association of Egyptian judges will monitor the polls, with the help of nongovernmental organizations. As an outside observer, it's easy to get the impression that the political landscape in Egypt has undergone some positive changes.

But the engineer Shady Botros begs to differ. He is a supporter of the "Kifaya" ("Enough") Movement, founded at the beginning of the year. This heterogeneous protest and reform organization is made up primarily of left-wing journalists and intellectuals, but also includes members of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and is by now 3,000 members strong.

Botros is convinced that "the political situation will be even more disastrous after the elections." For him, as for many Egyptians, the constitutional amendment is nothing other than an easily instrumentalized maneuver designed to feign conformance with international demands that the political stage be opened up for participation by others – a double-edged sword in the truest sense of the word.

Pressure from outside – repression inside

The outward show of willingness to undertake reforms and the waning of international vigilance in its wake have purportedly lent the government an additional measure of freedom when it comes to repression, as evidenced by the sometimes brutal manner in which demonstrations have been squelched.

Botros' greatest fear is that the elections – despite the manipulation that is to be expected – will be regarded as a clear legitimization of the present regime, under the cloak of which the politics of the next six years will enjoy carte blanche.

He is certain that the legislature period that will follow will be marked by the continuation of a policy of intimidation and repression of any and all freedoms: "In a country in which virtually everything – from the appointment of university presidents to the establishment of a political party – depends on the approval of the government, our belief in the effectiveness and purpose of political codetermination has gradually wasted away. The government will use this to its advantage."

Other voices contradict this assessment, however. "Even a tree starts out as a tiny seed," says Moataz El Fegiery. The 24-year-old has been in charge of the political program of one of the most renowned Arab NGOs, the "Cairo Institute for Democracy and Human Rights" for the last three years.

Short-term change out of the question

One soon senses that even he is not exactly euphoric at the present situation – aware as he is of the stifling of freedom of speech, the generalized repression, and the lack of alternatives within the Egyptian political system. Like many others of his generation, he is convinced that the results of the coming elections have already been predetermined, and that a process of change will not be forthcoming anytime in the near future.

Notwithstanding these caveats, he still emphasizes the necessity of viewing this first step toward reform as the springboard for more widespread political transformation: "This election offers many parties a chance to present their political platforms and to draw the public's attention to the alternatives they offer – if only to a limited extent." For El Fegiery, this therefore represents a landmark point at which the battle for a new atmosphere of free expression can get underway, as the foundation for a new social consciousness.

The role of the Muslim Brotherhood

Grasping at this straw is immensely important for the country, since most Egyptians caught up in today's miserable economic situation and rampant unemployment have only two solutions to choose from: Mubarak or religion. Although the Muslim Brotherhood is banned as a political party and thus cannot send a candidate into the race, it enjoys a high standing among much of the population.

For years now, the group has been trying to step into the breach left by the state's neglect of social affairs and education by offering alternative programs with a religious bent that ensure a solid base of support for its followers.

In spite of being banned from participating, the organization has announced that it will not boycott the elections, even if it foregoes supporting a specific candidate. This step appears to be deeply significant because it suggests to the group's followers that they should look for political alternatives that fit in with at least part of their political and social convictions.

From this situation, it is clear why particularly the underprivileged classes in Egypt must be prompted to get involved in the political process; otherwise, they will turn to religion for guidance, with all that this implies for the future of Egyptian society.

Political education and civilian engagement

El-Fegiery sees this as the main task of civil society: "Our goal is to make sure that democratic reforms, which are still the privileged vision of society's elite, are demanded by the general public as well." Together with other NGOs, a program has been initiated for the presidential elections that is designed to stir up the interest of the entire voting public.

For several weeks, full-time staff and volunteers have been observing and evaluating press reports on each of the campaigns. Ahmed Samih, director of the organization "Andalus," is enthusiastic about the effectiveness of this project: "It's about time someone educated Egypt's citizens about the extremely government-friendly slant of the media here and drew their attention, based on our study, to the imbalance in publicized opinion."

17 newspapers and five television channels are being monitored, with 15 volunteers in his institute alone working from nine o'clock in the morning until one o'clock the next morning. The results of the study are released in regularly published interim reports and newspaper articles as well as at press conferences.

Even if the project does not have a direct impact on the current elections, Samih is certain that pressure will be increased on the media to provide neutral reporting in the lead-up to the parliamentary elections in November. This should serve to bolster societal trends toward breathing new life into the meaning of freedom of speech.

Opportunities for political change?

In the midst of the presidential elections, skepticism with regard to the earnestness of Mubarak's reform intentions and the meaningfulness of political participation still seems widespread among the citizenry. In view of the irregularities of past elections and referendums, together with the current ban on international monitoring of the polls and a very dubious state electoral committee, this skepticism comes as no surprise.

However, examples of burgeoning activism in Egyptian civil society are not the only sign of the emerging potential for transformation. Even though many people don't quite know what to make of the thousands of political messages, and even if enthusiasm – in the form of tangible alternatives – is not yet in sight, the fact that the populace is exposed to these messages at all is proof enough that this is an important turning point.

The dynamics of recent decades, characterized by a reluctance to get people involved in politics, have been decisively shaken up in this year's presidential elections.

Veit Medick

The author is a freelance journalist living in Berlin.

Translation from German: Jennifer Taylor-Gaida

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