Europe can still make a difference
Europe has been relegated to play second fiddle in the Middle East, a region once dominated by its post World War One powers and is struggling for years to design a new role for itself. The Middle East is witnessing a fierce competition, often dotted by growing instances of open friction, between the US and Russia, both relying on military presence in different countries, and a strife between the US and China in the technological and economic domains.
The main issue for the European Union and the United Kingdom is how exactly and to what extent to help shape the American policy and take part in a coordinated effort to prevent the collapse of the Arab countries into an ever-expanding cycle of hostilities and avoid the very acute danger of implosion into impoverishment, bankruptcies and massive flight towards the northern shores of the Mediterranean.
Futile attempts
Attempts of several European governments to initiate independently resolutions to crises in the region has proven futile: France and Italy pursued contradictory policies in Libya and together failed to achieve reunification of the divided country under an effective government.
“France and Italy pursued contradictory policies in Libya and together failed to achieve reunification of the divided country under an effective government."
France’s truly pathetic insistence on mediating in Lebanon only proved its irrelevance there. EU’s commitment -and financial investment- to the vision of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian quagmire did not arrest the continuing deterioration on that front. The same goes for European diplomacy in Syria ever since the outbreak of the devastating civil war in 2011.In short, Europe is well aware of its limitations. This by no means implies that the continent does not have crucial interests in the region or that there are no significant contributions that it can offer to alleviate risks and steer the region towards a more peaceful and hopefully prosperous future. Here are few possible courses of action:
Iran
No other country has tried for over 30 years to acquire nuclear weapons without assembling a bomb. The Islamic Republic certainly possesses the material and know-how to obtain an arsenal, yet it has chosen to inch forward aggressively to the brink of becoming a nuclear power without crossing the red line.
"The Islamic Republic certainly possesses the material and know-how to obtain an arsenal, yet it has chosen to inch forward aggressively to the brink of becoming a nuclear power without crossing the red line.”
One reason for this conduct is fear that others-Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and even the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will rush get their own bombs.
The second reason is the threat of a much more comprehensive international sanctions regime. Therefore, The E-3 (informal foreign and security cooperation arrangement between the UK, Germany and France) should put pressure on Washington to raise, loud and clear, the option of snap back of sanctions plus additional measures in order to bolster those in Teheran who are warning against the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) push to have the bomb.
The ”Axis of Ressistance”
Through the Qods Corps of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) Iran is implementing the Moqawama Doctrine, envisaged by the late General Qassem Solimani, to dominate the Levant by proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen with the objective of becoming the de-facto hegemon of the Arab East and also encircling Israel with a “ring of fire”.
They are already threatening to attack an EU member, Cyprus, and openly declare the intention to become capable of military action at a distance of 10 000 kilometers, that includes much of Europe. Disrupting this strategy requires as a top priority a joint US-European moves to prevent Iraq (and the Kurdish autonomy) turning into puppet entities.
“They are already threatening to attack an EU member, Cyprus, and openly declare the intention to become capable of military action at a distance of 10 000 kilometers.”
Bolstering those political forces in Baghdad who still oppose Iran’s ambition to control its neighbor should be a primary target. In cooperation with the Gulf states economic incentives may stall the takeover of the country by Iran’s agents in the “Popular Mobilization”, an Iran-backed militia army raised to fight the Islamic State, now subsidized by the weak Iraqi government. Even figures such as the maverick cleric Muqtada Sadr could be seen as potential partners (a radical Iraqi cleric, militia leader, and Shiite politician whose forces fought against U.S. and Iraqi troops from 2004 to 2008).
If Iraq is kept out of total Iranian control it would hamper Iran’s campaign to establish west bound land corridors from its border to the sea. EU may also weigh the pros and cons of sending small contingents of troops with goal of encouraging whoever wins the White House in November from pulling out of Iraq.
Syria
Iran has complex relations with Russia in Syria and despite their close alliance in Ukraine for example, president Putin has forbidden Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from embroiling the Assad regime in the current confrontation with Israel. More can be done to curtail Iran’s power over Syria. As in Iraq Europe can send small contingents to northeast Syria and to the southeastern Tanf enclave (a military base in Syria used by the US) to support the case of those in Washington who warn against allowing Assad to capture the fertile oil-rich areas across the Euphrates river, now held by the Kurds. These two zones also serve as important barriers to Iranian shipments of arms not only to Hizbullah and (by smuggling) to the West bank.
"These two zones also serve as important barriers to Iranian shipments of arms not only to Hizbullah and to the West bank."
Evacuation from Tanf will pose increased threat to the stability of Jordan and the massive trafficking of drugs, produced in Lebanon and Syria, will reach even bigger proportions flooding the Arab peninsula and far beyond. Another possible option for Europe would be to back, together with the US, opening a three-kilometer humanitarian corridor from Jordan to the nearest Druze village in order to support the unarmed revolt of Sweida province against Assad and his Iranian patrons.
Lebanon
In the foreseeable future unfortunately, Lebanon cannot be restored as a functioning state or extricate itself from Hezbollah’s grip. Yet again together with the US the anti-Iranian political parties, including rivals of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah within the Shiite community should be assisted in preventing the election of a pro-Iran president and the nomination of a pro-Iran cabinet.
Europe should consider participation in a post-war upgraded UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) and set conditions on providing equipment to the Lebanese army in order to keep it as much as possible out of Hezbollah’s manipulations.
"Europe should consider participation in a post-war upgraded UNIFIL and set conditions on providing equipment to the Lebanese army."
When the time is ripe Europe may consider offering its good services for the final demarcation of the border with Israel. One substantial project that so far failed to take off is pumping “Egyptian” (in reality Israeli gas) from Jordan to Lebanon which suffers an acute shortage of electricity.
The Palestinian Authority (PA)
As major donor to the PA and UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) Europe should have a strong interest in compelling president Mahmud Abbas to introduce serious reforms to uproot the culture of corruption and waste and form a new can-do government which will embark upon establishing decent social services, investing in developing a productive economy and reorganize the security services.
“As major donor to the PA and UNRWA Europe should have a strong interest in compelling president Abbas to introduce serious reforms to uproot the culture of corruption and waste and form a new can-do government.”
The plans for reforms are on the table but the 87-years old Abbas is resisting the American and Gulf pressure to relinquish at least some of his responsibilities and transfer powers to politically unaffiliated capable experts. The ongoing stagnation in of the PA and the deterioration of its popularity endanger its prospects of survival.
Hamas, backed by Iran, has already doubled its efforts to undermine the PA’s legitimacy and prepare to capture the West Bank. Thorough reform of the PA has become an urgent task, especially if it is to be entrusted with running the Gaza Strip. At this point, it seems, only a firm ultimatum may bring about a change: the EU with Norway, Japan and others should warn Abbas that the donor states will halt the transfer of funds until the reform is underway. There may be no other way to convince him!
Israel
Without delving into the intricate divisions in Europe regarding Israel it is obvious that parallel to pressure on the PA, the EU and UK need to demand from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, as long as it clings to power, to take steps to a) wrap up the current war in Gaza, even if it keeps pursuing Hamas that was converted from a terrorist well-tunneled army with large depots of rockets into an unarmed underground. b) Declare that Gaza will come under the PA once reform is in progress. c) state its adherence to the two-state vision. d)suspend further settlement building. e) instruct the police to proceed with legal action against the few dozens of radical right winger young settlers who harass neighboring Palestinians. f) remove the ban on Palestinian worker coming to Israel in order to improve the difficult economic situation in the West Bank.
“The EU and UK need to demand from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, as long as it clings to power, to take steps to wrap up the current war in Gaza.”
Such steps would help diffuse tensions and allow Israeli-PA cooperation on the reconstruction of Gaza.
Egypt
”The Giant on the Nile” is on the verge of collapse, saved so far by injection of funds from Gulf states led by UAE .An implosion of a country of 100 million people would carry enormous repercussions for Europe. The immediate mission should be to exercise pressure on president Sisi to privatize state-owned corporations and the multitude of companies managed by the armed forces. A free economy is imperative in order to lift Egypt out of misery. Instead of happily responding to Egypt’s endless appetite to procure expensive military hardware Europeans would ultimately benefit from making profit on economic investments there.
“Instead of happily responding to Egypt’s endless appetite to procure expensive military hardware Europeans would ultimately benefit from making profit on economic investments there.”
Rescuing Egypt from itself is crucial in order to cope with what lies ahead: the specter of 300million unemployed youth in the whole MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region two decades from now. This is, of course, a European concern that will not fade away if not addressed properly. The Middle East is a ticking time bomb that threatens to explode in Europe’s direction.
© Qantara.de 2024
Ehud Yaari is an Israeli journalist, author, television personality and political commentator.