What's next for the Muslim Brotherhood?

Since the Jordanian authorities announced the ban on the Muslim Brotherhood on 23 April, raids on its headquarters and arrests of its members have continued unabated. The escalation marks a radical shift in the relationship between the state and the Brotherhood, which has long been a major part of the country's political and social landscape. 

The latest measures followed the arrest on 15 April of 16 Jordanians allegedly linked to the group. They were charged with recruitment, manufacturing homemade rockets and possession of weapons and explosives. The government used the case to justify a blanket ban on the group's activities and the seizure of its headquarters, a move that raised serious questions about the future of the Jordanian group and its political arm, the Islamic Action Front (IAF). 

In September 2024, the IAF secured a historic victory in the Jordanian parliamentary elections, winning 31 of 138 seats. Party Secretary General Wael al-Saqa attributed the success to growing popular backing, fueled by the group’s vocal support for the people of Gaza following the 7 October 2023 attacks. 

Benefiting from the war on Gaza

The Gaza war boosted the Brotherhood’s popular support but also provoked hostility from the state, particularly over its organisational and ideological ties to Hamas. Omar al-Ayasrah, a member of the Jordanian Senate—a parliamentary body appointed by the king—told Qantara that the Jordanian Brotherhood has developed an armed wing posing a threat to national security, and maintains links to other Islamic groups outside the country.

These links were evident in Hamas's response to the arrests. In an official statement, Hamas demanded the release of the detained Jordanians, describing their actions as "motivated by support for Palestine." 

Al-Ayasrah accused the Muslim Brotherhood of failing to capitalise on the opportunity the state offered after the Arab Spring. He noted that, unlike in several other countries, the state resisted regional pressure to eliminate the group and even allowed its political wing, the IAF, to continue operating. 

The Brotherhood's history in Jordan dates back to 1945, when it was founded as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It enjoyed a cooperative relationship with the regime, enabling it to embed itself in society, particularly during the 1950s. However, this relationship began to deteriorate in the mid-1990s, particularly in 1994 when the group protested Jordan's signing of a peace treaty with Israel, known as the Wadi Araba Agreement. 

As political Islam gained momentum during the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, King Abdullah's regime grew increasingly wary that the Brotherhood might exploit domestic crises to advance its political agenda. In response, the government authorised the creation of a parallel body in 2015, the Muslim Brotherhood Association, led by former Brotherhood members who had broken away from the group. The Association announced its dissolution in July 2025 to avoid perceived links with the banned group. 

A pragmatic approach

The first signs of the current rift between the regime and the Brotherhood appeared in 2020, when a court ruling dissolved the group. However, the ruling neither criminalised its political activity nor placed it on the terrorist list, as Egypt and the UAE had done. The Brotherhood regrouped through the IAF, securing a notable victory in the recent elections.

Mustafa Abu Amsha, a Jordanian researcher specialising in Islamist groups, told Qantara that the party was created to regulate the Brotherhood and separate its political activity from religious advocacy, but has so far failed to achieve this goal. 

The IAF, however, did pursue a pragmatic line, bringing in figures with no organisational ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. This broadened its scope for action and allowed it to position itself as an independent entity, one capable of absorbing the Brotherhood's growing popular base and ensuring its continuity should the state target the parent group, particularly its hardline "hawks" faction. 

When the security crackdown began in April, the IAF quickly denied any links to the Brotherhood, affirming in a statement its complete independence and offering to open all 40 of its headquarters to inspection. This did not prevent authorities from arresting its deputy secretary-general, Jamil Abu Bakr, in mid-June as part of an investigation into a plot that threatened state security. 

The Brotherhood was accused of running a financial network that collected 30 million Jordanian Dinars over eight years to fund the illegal activities of a political party—widely believed by observers to be the IAF—and of influencing union and student elections. So far, authorities have arrested 11 people in connection with the case. 

An international crisis

What is happening in Jordan cannot be separated from the broader crisis the international Muslim Brotherhood has faced in recent years. In Egypt, the group has been mired in deep divisions since it fell from power in 2013. In Tunisia, it faced a similar fate to the group in Jordan, with its founder, Rached Ghannouchi, imprisoned in 2023. 

In Morocco, the group's popularity has plummeted since its crushing defeat in the 2021 parliamentary elections. The Movement of Society for Peace (MSP), its branch in neighbouring Algeria, is likewise grappling with internal disputes. In Lebanon, the Islamic Group and its military wing, the Fajr Forces, have been severely weakened by the setbacks faced by their ally Hezbollah and growing calls for both groups to disarm. 

Internationally, the Brotherhood is under mounting pressure, including US efforts to designate it a terrorist organisation. Earlier this year, Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party submitted a draft resolution to ban the group's activities in the country, targeting in particular the Islamic Community of Germany (DMG), its main branch there. 

According to the Trends Research Center, the group's global influence declined from 64% in 2021 to 48% in 2023. However, it is attempting to revive its political platform and gain support following the events of 7 October 2023, as happened in Jordan. 

Survival scenarios

In Jordan, the group is now banned and its leaders are under surveillance, while the future of its political wing remains uncertain. Saleh al-Armouti, head of the IAF parliamentary bloc, told a television interviewer that "the party will remain untouched and will continue its constitutional role in serving the kingdom. The plot against it is a Zionist conspiracy." He emphasised that the Islamic political movement is an integral part of Jordan's national fabric and has consistently supported King Abdullah II's policies. 

Jordanian researcher Abu Amsha believes the state is keen to maintain the party as a channel for the Brotherhood's youth without direct organisational links to it, while simultaneously working to dismantle the group's hardline wing. 

Conversely, the Brotherhood is likely to demonstrate its loyalty to the state through the IAF, shifting toward more flexible clandestine activity. According to Abu Amsha, the group will undertake an internal strategic reassessment, which could result in the creation of a new movement to maintain its ideology. 

As for Al-Ayasrah, Jordanian senate member, he says the state has placed the Brotherhood and its party under comprehensive surveillance until the Brotherhood has made visible efforts to curb the militaristic ideas that have recently spread within the group. He believes that now, "they must practice nobility toward the state" to ensure political survival.

This is an edited translation of the Arabic original. Translated by Maram Taylor.