Qantara: How significant is Germany's role in arming Israel?

Lilian Löwenbrück: Germany is the second-largest exporter of arms to Israel, preceded only by the United States. Around 30 percent of arms imported by Israel come from Germany. 

How have Germany's arms exports to Israel changed since 7 October 2023? 

The military relationship between Germany and Israel has always been strong, but after 7 October, it intensified. Directly after the attacks, Germany increased its arms exports significantly. In October 2023, €203 million worth of arms exports were approved. For context, the total for 2023 was €326.5 million—meaning the vast majority were approved directly after 7 October.

During the first months of the following year, export licenses declined noticeably, but increased again in autumn 2024.

How do you explain these fluctuations?

There are several possible reasons for the drop in export licences at the start of 2024. One is the sheer volume of arms exports that had already been approved immediately after 7 October. Another is the growing international criticism of Israel's military conduct.

At the end of December 2023, South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of violating the Genocide Convention. Another lawsuit was filed by Nicaragua against Germany at the ICJ in March 2024. Nicaragua accused Germany of violating the Genocide Convention, as well as international humanitarian law, by supplying Israel with weapons. In addition, beginning in March 2024, several individuals have brought cases to German administrative courts to block the approval of export licenses.

All these factors could have contributed to Germany's momentary restraint. But that changed drastically last autumn. Chancellor Olaf Scholz was outspoken about the fact that Germany was supplying Israel with weapons and would continue to do so. 

Between January and mid-September 2024, military exports worth €14.5 million were approved. In just the final three months of the year, that figure jumped to €146.5 million. The trend has continued into 2025: more arms exports were approved in the first quarter than during the same period the year before.

What exactly is Germany currently exporting?

To our knowledge, no weapons of war have been approved since February 2024, but other military equipment has.

Weapons of war are weapons listed in the annex of the German Military Weapons Control Act (Kriegswaffenkontrollgesetz). For example, tanks, rocket-propelled grenades, bombs and other ammunition. Other military equipment includes weapon parts such as transmissions for tanks or software for drones.

In the case brought by Nicaragua, Germany has defended itself by arguing that 98 percent of German licenses were for military equipment—as if that was harmless. Tank transmissions are quite important for warfare.

What rules apply to arms exports?

International legal obligations apply to weapons of war as well as military equipment. These are specified most clearly in the Kriegswaffenkontrollgesetz. It states that licenses are to be denied if their approval would violate Germany's international legal obligations or jeopardise their fulfilment.

However, the licensing process is not transparent at all. We cannot trace how decisions are made. We can only find out retrospectively through the parliamentarian right to question what has been approved. And even that does not automatically tell us anything about the actual supply. Sometimes it is shipped right after licensing, sometimes it takes longer.

Why is this lack of transparency a problem?  

Not knowing what is being approved or shipped makes it difficult to determine the subject of a lawsuit. Even though it is very likely that unlawful arms export licences have been issued, legal action against them is extremely difficult.

Can you give an example?

The ECCHR has supported individuals from Gaza in several different cases. In April 2024, there was a case dealing with export licenses for rocket-propelled grenades. Information had surfaced that the Israeli army was using this type of weapon in Gaza. The proceedings proved that Germany had licensed the export of 3000 rocket-propelled grenades in October 2023 and delivered them shortly after, in November. In this case, the proceedings came too late and had no impact.

In another case in May 2024, individuals affected by the war in Gaza requested that no more licenses for weapons of war be issued as long as the military operation in Gaza continues. The court denied this request, arguing that at that moment, there were no ongoing licensing procedures for weapons of war. The court considered the request premature.

The applicants from Gaza then requested to be notified in the event of further licenses for weapons of war, so that they could proceed against them in time. This request was also denied, due to the German government's right to confidentiality. Additionally, the court denied the applicants' legal right to this information.

In our view, this falls far short of what effective legal protection should look like in situations where lives are at risk.

Is there any way to take effective action against these exports?

Unfortunately, this is often left up to chance. In an ongoing case, the ECCHR is supporting an individual from Gaza who has filed a case against export licenses for German tank transmissions.

In October 2024, Der Spiegel magazine reported on two export licenses for tank transmissions that had been granted recently. Through this report, it became possible to take action against these two licenses in time before the equipment could be shipped.

The proceedings are still ongoing. The administrative court in Frankfurt denied the complaint in the first instance. Now we are appealing before the Higher Administrative Court in Kassel.

The cases at the administrative courts aim at preventing future arms exports. Another approach would be to sue policymakers for illegal exports retrospectively, on a national level using the German Code of Crimes against International Law, or internationally in front of the International Criminal Court. Who could be targeted by such lawsuits?

Political decision makers who issued licenses or facilitated exports could be held accountable for aiding and abetting crimes against international law, such as war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide.

These could include members of the Federal Security Council (Bundessicherheitsrat) such as the Chancellor or the Ministers for Economic Affairs, Foreign Affairs or Defence. It is also possible, in our view, that managers of arms companies are guilty of aiding and abetting crimes against international law.

Is there anything unusual about Germany's arms exports to Israel, or does Germany generally have a questionable record regarding the international sale of arms?

We see the same issues in other contexts: inadequate control mechanisms, disregarding international law in licensing decisions, and a lack of information that makes it difficult for courts to exercise control. What is special about the case of Israel is that its warfare in Gaza after 7 October 2023 has been legally assessed and criticised by a multitude of organisations and experts.

The United Nations have warned of a genocide more than once and has called on states to stop supplying Israel with arms. The ICJ sees a plausible risk that Israel is violating rights under the Genocide Convention. And the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant. In light of these developments, it is surprising that the German government openly commits to further arms exports to Israel.

On Tuesday, Friedrich Merz became the head of a new government of Christian and Social Democrats. What do you expect from this government?

The coalition agreement formulates an arms export policy that provides German industry with reliability and is explicitly geared to the interests of foreign, economic and security policy. The review of export licenses is to be carried out more quickly.

This suggests that international law and human rights risks will be even less rigorously examined. It is to be feared that the interests of affected civilians will fall even further behind the interests of the arms industry.

Arms supply to Israel is not explicitly mentioned in the coalition agreement. But Merz has already announced that he will find ways to welcome Netanyahu in Germany without arrest. This suggests that military support for Israel will not only continue, but may even increase.