Can semi-democracy survive?

In May, Emir Mishal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah dissolved the Kuwaiti parliament and suspended seven articles of the constitution. Kuwait’s democratic process—unique in the Gulf region, as the parliament has real powers and has repeatedly defied the executive in the past—seemed to be faltering suddenly. 

The suspended articles of the constitution primarily addressed the National Assembly's role and oversight functions, as repeated quarrels between parliament and government had hindered lawmaking and economic reforms. The emir took a radical step—one that many outsiders may see as the beginning of the end of the parliamentary system in Kuwait. However, historical precedent allows us to draw another conclusion. 

Parliamentary life has been turbulent in Kuwait since 2003. Except for the parliament elected in 2016, none has completed its constitutional term. Not including the current suspension, parliament has been dissolved eight times in the same period. 

Moreover, the relationship between Kuwait’s legislative and executive authorities is imbalanced, as the majority in the elected parliament does not form the government but rather coexists with a prime minister appointed by the emir. Kuwait therefore operates as a semi-parliamentary system. This imbalance has led to repeated political deadlocks, especially in the Kuwaiti parliament, which comprises a contradictory combination of leftist, populist and Islamist ideologies. 

Economically, Kuwait has lagged behind the rest of the Gulf region, whose states have invested in economic diversification in recent years and evolved into global trading centres. Although Kuwait is OPEC’s fifth-largest oil producer, it has scarcely used its financial resources, unlike its neighbours, to invest in infrastructure or other economic and energy sectors. In the summer, the country even suffered repeated power cuts. 

An IMF report issued in September 2023 attributed Kuwait's economic problems to "frequent changes of government, and the political impasse between government and parliament, have impeded important fiscal and structural reforms."

A government without oversight

In this complex context, the suspension of the parliament has thrown Kuwait's semi-democracy into a state of precarity. The emir’s initial speech and subsequent decree outlined a detailed plan for the next steps after the dissolution of parliament, including the formation of a committee of experts to draft proposals for constitutional amendments within six months. 

The process was supposed to end either through a public referendum or after sending the amendments to the next National Assembly for approval. However, the decree did not clarify how this committee of experts was to be formed, nor did it contain any concrete objectives. On the contrary, the decree merely referred to "sound democratic governance" and "compliance with Islamic Sharia law".   

In the absence of parliament, the emir issued decrees and quickly formed a technocratic government, which later underwent several personnel changes. On a positive note, three ministerial posts are now held by women, marking the highest level of female participation in Kuwaiti government history. Nevertheless, the new government, acting without parliamentary oversight, has still not revealed its agenda. Pending issues, such as the diversification of the economy, remain unaddressed and it is still unclear what other priorities will be set. 

Commitment to democracy

It is striking that there were no major protests in Kuwait following the suspension of parliament, as the country has repeatedly experienced demonstrations for political and social reasons, most notably in 2006, 2011 and 2019. This time, the population remained calm and seemed even to have welcomed the decision, which followed years of political deadlock. 

Popular silence should not, however, be interpreted as a desire to abandon the democratic process altogether. Rather, it reflects a desire to reform the political system and address the issues that arise from the current political structure—where having an elected parliament and an appointed prime minister has complicated the work of government. The high turnout in the recent parliamentary elections (62 percent in April 2024) reflects Kuwaitis' ongoing commitment to democracy. 

A survey conducted after the suspension of parliament confirms this conclusion. Most Kuwaitis (69 percent) believe that structural problems, especially the imbalance between the legislative and executive authorities, are responsible for the recurring political deadlocks. They blame both the executive and the parliament for these crises, without placing responsibility on one institution alone. The vast majority expressed support for parliamentary oversight of the government and free elections and believed that democracy would provide the best system of governance. 

So, despite—or perhaps exactly because of—the rollback of democratic freedoms in recent years, Kuwaitis display a long-term commitment to democracy. According to the 2024 Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI)*, freedom of expression has fallen from a high of seven out of ten to a three, and freedom of assembly is ranked at four out of ten. Yet a continued commitment to democracy among Kuwaitis is also reflected in the actions of writers and intellectuals, who have been trying for months to stimulate public debate on constitutional change and democratic reform. 

A need for sustained democratic change

Despite the challenging context and the negative developments of recent months, the current suspension of parliament will not undermine democratic change in Kuwait for good. A collapse of democracy is not to be expected. In the Emir's first speech on the dissolution of parliament, he made it clear that Kuwait would not abandon its democratic history. Moreover, Kuwait’s constitution protects the democratically elected parliament and the freedoms of its citizens. 

In Kuwait's 62-year history, it has been repeatedly shown how deeply rooted the parliamentary spirit is in the country and how much committed actors from across the country’s diverse political ideologies are to democratic freedoms. Kuwaitis have shown their faith in the legislature, particularly during times when parliament was suspended. Since Kuwait’s liberation from Iraqi occupation in 1991, the parliament has become foundational for many to the legitimacy of the Kuwaiti political system. 

Given the country's need to overcome its dependence on oil and diversify its economy to emerge from stagnation, it cannot afford the negative consequences of a prolonged political crisis. A recent paper has just concluded that the suspension of parliament has already done lasting damage to the economy. 

All these factors point towards the return of parliamentary work in Kuwait within four years at most, especially as the emir's decree provides for the return of parliament in the medium term. However, even with the resumption of the elected parliament, the structural imbalance between the legislative and executive branches will still exist. This underscores the need for a sustained democratic transformation, the success of which will probably depend largely on the initiative of Kuwaitis themselves. 

*This text was written for the BTI Blog of the Bertelsmann Stiftung.