New alliances in European migration diplomacy
Margaritis Schinas plays a crucial role in European efforts to agree a common policy on asylum and migration. In a recent full-page interview in the leading Athens daily Kathimerini, the Vice-President of the EU Commission exuded confidence: "We've never been as close to a solution as we are now," said the senior Brussels politician.
Schinas, a Greek national, says that the calendar is at the root of his optimism: After Spain, Belgium will take over the EU Council presidency for the first six months of 2024 and, according to Schinas, the Belgians are "world champions in compromise".
The Commission vice-president is currently working on a project to limit the number of refugees on Europe's external borders. He told Kathimerini that he was just back from West Africa.
In Guinea, Ivory Coast and Senegal – all countries where many people begin their dangerous journey to Europe – he communicated to his hosts the core message of European migration diplomacy: "The more you work together on the migration question, the more you'll gain from Europe. Otherwise, our support will be adjusted."
In a nutshell, money for border controls – or something along those lines – is the EU's Neighbourhood Policy. Although the current focus is on Tunisia, the refugee issue has long cast a shadow over Europe's relations with Libya and Egypt too.
Number of refugees arriving in Europe from Turkey rising again
The eastern Mediterranean – and the key nation of Turkey – has slipped out of focus somewhat. But this calm, if it can be described as such, is deceptive. A rising number of refugees is once again landing on the Greek Aegean islands. And Athens is getting increasingly nervous.
International diplomacy remains a main arena for migration policy. The heads of government of the nine Mediterranean and southern members of the European Union known as the MED9 have just been meeting in the Maltese capital, Valetta. Here too, migration was a major topic of discussion: EU countries "need to determine on our own terms who enters" the 27-nation bloc, was how Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis summed up one of the conclusions of the gathering. "Currently it is the smugglers who decide who gets to enter the European Union, and this must change," he said.
Athens' migration diplomacy relies on co-operation with as many like-minded governments as possible. Its eastern neighbour, Turkey, is of central importance in this respect. Most of the people seeking sanctuary arrive in Greece from there. Recently, Germany has also come to play a key role.
In recent weeks, there has been an unprecedented form of co-operation on refugee policy between Athens, Berlin and Ankara. If official statements are to be believed, the governments of Greece, Turkey and Germany share the common goal of gaining control of refugee flows in the Aegean Sea and along the River Evros on the Greek-Turkish border.
"Turkey has developed into the most important international hub for irregular migration worldwide," said the new Greek Migration Minister Dimitris Kairidis. The Athens politician chose the mass-circulation German tabloid newspaper BILD as a vehicle for his statements. In the article, the minister explained the migrants' methods to millions of German readers: "With the cheap tickets from Turkish Airlines, it's very easy for third-country nationals, without a visa … to fly to Turkey. From Istanbul Airport, they move either by land or sea over the Greek border to Europe."
Many migrants want to reach Germany
The destination for the vast majority of these people is still Germany, he went on. What's known as secondary migration explains Berlin's particular interest in an agreement with Turkey – and with the most important transit land, Greece, he said.
For Athens, Berlin is the most important ally in the migration question, primarily due to its special relationship with Ankara: "We all know that Germany is the biggest player in Europe with close and wide-ranging ties to Turkey. We also know that in Europe, the Turks prefer to talk to Germany and are more likely to listen to Berlin than to other capitals."
This is one aspect of the goal-focused alliance, where – from the Greek perspective – Berlin wields the greatest leverage in encouraging Ankara to play ball.
Meanwhile, Athens and Berlin are also both keen to renew the EU refugee agreement with Turkey from 2016. It would be naïve to assume that without new billion-euro transfers from Brussels and without political concessions from the Europeans, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be accommodating on the migration question. Just as he did in 2016, Erdoğan will not only demand a lot of money from the EU, he will also require political commitments on visa facilitation for Turkish citizens in the EU and the modernisation of the Customs Union.
Meanwhile, Athens and Ankara are already carrying out crucial preparatory work on a bilateral level. The wheels of this process are being well oiled by a much-improved climate in the two nations' bilateral relations in recent months. Local media report that the Greek and Turkish migration ministers are communicating via WhatsApp with the common goal of halting irregular border crossings.
At their meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York a few weeks ago, Prime Minister Mitsotakis and President Erdoğan agreed to seek solutions together to the migration issue. The topic is expected to be on the agenda when the two leaders next meet in Thessaloniki in early December.
Before that, Athens and Berlin will coordinate the next (joint) steps and seek alignment with the European Commission in Brussels. This process is now in full swing. Top-level coordination between Germany and Greece is expected by mid-November, when Kyriakos Mitsotakis meets Chancellor Olaf Scholz during his inaugural visit to Berlin.
© Qantara.de 2023
Translated from the German by Nina Coon