What future for President Erdogan and the AKP?
Turkey was struck by two deadly earthquakes on 6 February, both of a magnitude greater than 7.6, killing over 47,000 people in the country’s south and southeast. Many are now asking how complicit the government and authorities were in the extent of the disaster – and whether many deaths couldn't have been prevented.
Prior to the quakes at the beginning of the month, Turkey was debating when the presidential and parliamentary elections would be held, with the government wanting to hold them on 14 May, more than a month earlier than the legal deadline: 18 June. But three weeks into the wake of the tremors, it is not clear how Turkey will hold safe and fair elections. The catastrophe's consequences will, however, likely reshape the country's political landscape, and the tragedy will be engrained in the memories of millions of Turkish people for the coming years and decades.
There has been no opinion poll on the political impact of the quakes yet, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), face heavy criticism from both the public and the opposition. They blame the government for its inadequate and slow response to the quakes, a lack of disaster preparedness in what is an earthquake-prone country, and poor crisis management.
'The disaster of the century'
The Turkish government has termed the two powerful earthquakes "the disaster of the century", implying that the level of destruction was inevitable. Erdogan has admitted there were some delays in responding on the first day of the disaster, but he argues that the situation was subsequently brought under control. That, however, is not what people are saying on the ground. Victims and rescue teams, both local and foreign, underlined that poor coordination hampered efforts to save many people.
Opposition leader Meral Aksener from the Iyi or Good Party blamed the executive presidential system for the failure in coordination. "Once again, we see how slow our bureaucracy has become. In this monstrous system, where only one person speaks, unfortunately, none of our civil servants can make decisions or take responsibility or initiative," she said on her visit to the earthquake zone.
Head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu also put the blame firmly on Erdogan, saying that his "one-man regime" was the disaster of the century. "This one-man regime cannot make decisions. They never coordinated rescue efforts; they were late. The government has the blood of our citizens on its hands," he said.
Communications disaster
Kilicdaroglu also likened Presidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun to Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels. The comparison was in response to a video posted on Twitter by an account called "Asrin Felaketi" (Disaster of the Century), which pushed the narrative that no government could have prevented such a massive disaster. The presidential communications directorate is believed to have been behind the video. The account was closed following widespread outrage on social media.
Yet that was not the government's first communications disaster during the aftermath. On Day 2, it restricted access to Twitter, at a time when the social media platform was playing a key role in helping organisations coordinate rescue efforts. Access was only restored after 10 hours. No reason for the restrictions was given by the government, but a meeting was held between Turkish and Twitter officials in the midst of the chaos.
Deputy Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Omer Fatih Sayan said the government officials demanded Twitter step in to prevent disinformation. Many critics believe the Twitter block was implemented to silence criticism of the government. Erdogan has since labelled such criticism "lies" and "slander", calling his critics "dishonourable people".
Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, whose ministry runs the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), claimed the "lies" were a security problem. He added that the 7,300-strong AFAD is merely a coordination body; rescuers who were supposed to coordinate the efforts on the ground were also affected by the quakes, hence the late response.
AFAD has faced much criticism since the earthquake for its alleged lack of equipment and failure to effectively support the rescue of those trapped under the rubble, as well as its management reportedly lacking sufficient expertise.
The government is also under fire for not preparing the country for imminent earthquakes despite being in power for over 20 years. As a part of this criticism, many want to know where the billions in lira of "earthquake tax" have gone to, which the government began collecting following the deadly earthquake in Marmara in 1999.
Tax expert Ozan Bingol said the state had collected some 38.2bn dollars in earthquake tax, noting that Turkey should question where these taxes had been spent, as well as scrutinising the laws regarding public tenders and the concept of construction amnesties.
Amnesties for unsafe buildings
This governmental policy has been thrown uncomfortably into the spotlight. In the past 20 years, the authorities have granted nine such amnesties, most recently in 2018. Accordingly, it was possible for buildings deemed "illegal structures" to be pardoned – as long as the owner paid a fee, they would not be demolished. Amnesties were granted despite the buildings not meeting safety and building code requirements.
This approach patently rubber-stamped illegal construction and a lack of supervision, yet Erdogan has spoken out in favour of them on numerous occasions, including in Kahramanmaras, the epicentre of the recent earthquakes, ahead of the local elections in 2019.
Numerous organisations have moved in to help survivors on the ground, with one particularly rising to prominence: AHBAP. AHBAP has gained huge trust among the public and has vowed it will work with a local and international audit firm to ensure transparency. But MHP leader Devlet Bahceli has also targeted AHBAP, as trust in AFAD wanes.
The government has also been trying to prevent aid efforts initiated by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) in certain areas. An aid truck sent by the HDP to the southern province of quake-hit Osmaniye was seized by the police. HDP co-chair Pervin Buldan has called on Erdogan to resign over his government's shoddy disaster response. "While we have been helping people, trying to reach out to (victims), the government has been putting obstacles in our way. It is our duty to vote the AKP-MHP government out," she added.
Amid the criticism, the AKP has called for the issue not to be politicised. On 15 February, AKP spokesperson Omer Celik said they were not entering into a political discussion: their priority was to stand by the citizens in the earthquake zone and help them heal. Opposition leader Kilicdaroglu, however, was swift to call out the entire situation. "This is nothing if not political. We are in this situation because of [Erdogan’s] politics," he said.
The future of the elections
In the weeks before the earthquakes, Turkey was discussing whether the AKP-MHP alliance would be able to secure victory in this year’s elections, amid a serious cost of living crisis.
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Veteran AKP politician Bulent Arinc has proposed postponing the elections, saying it wouldn't be safe and fair amid the aftermath of the disaster. To date, the government has been playing down this suggestion. The other parties are strongly opposed to the idea: the Turkish constitution clearly states that elections can be postponed only if in a state of war and only for six months.
The tragedy of the 1999 Marmara earthquake is still fresh in the minds of many Turkish people. Back then, the government was also blamed for its inadequacy – above all, by a media that was freer to air criticism.
The first general election after the 1999 quake was held in 2002, which cost the coalition government at the time its mandate. The newly established AKP emerged as a party capable of healing wounds and offering a fresh take on politics. Having won the election, it would go on to rule Turkey for the next two decades.
Will the AKP, which emerged as the nation's saviour from the ashes of the 1999 earthquake, now be voted out in the aftermath of the 2023 earthquake?
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