Civil War or Hope?

Three years after the start of the Iraq war, the country finds itself standing before an uncertain future and faced with a wide range of problems. Peter Philipp explains the current situation

The former interim prime minister of Iraq, Iyad Allawi, can find no more accurate term: what is currently happening in Iraq, he says, can only be described as a civil war. When dozens of people are killed there every day and the violence is only getting worse, then the situation can only be described as desperate and the end of the unified Iraqi state appears to be approaching.

Collapse into ethnic and religious parts

Allawi is a Shiite and former Ba'ath party activist. When he was in exile, he worked for the CIA, and is now the leader of a secular party with 14% of the seats in parliament. He paints a gloomy picture of the future of his country, warning that Iraq is close to collapse into its ethnic and religious parts. It could even end up as a collection of mini-states.

This is not just doom-mongering aimed at bolstering Allawi's claim to be a compromise political figure who can bring the disintegrating political powers of the country back together. There's also a certain amount of realism involved. Never before has Iraq faced so many problems as it does on the third anniversary of the US-led invasion of March 20th, 2003.

Since the attack on the "Golden Mosque" in February, Shiites and Sunnis are engaged in a reckless fight, while the international brigade of terrorists of various hues continues to wreak its havoc.

And if the US troops have over recent days been carrying out a major military operation against terrorists and resistance groups in the so-called "Sunni triangle," it must still be clear to them that they can't stop the terror with tanks and helicopters.

And they won't be able to do it with the Iraqi security forces either, which make up almost half the fighting force currently in operation. Although young Iraqis seem fearless as they continue to present themselves at the recruitment centres, they are also totally without experience and scarcely in a position to bring about real peace and security.

Iyad Allawi has repeatedly criticised the USA's decision to disband the old regime's security forces, instead of making use of it. It was a mistake which it will cost much time – and many victims – to correct.

And there's no political solution in prospect either. Many Iraqis hoped for more security once the democratic process had begun, and above all, once the elections had taken place in December.

Three months have passed since then, and the new parliament has just managed a single short and mainly symbolic meeting. It hasn't succeeded in forming a government – that will still require weeks or months.

Lack of security

The population is increasingly frustrated: it had hoped for more from the elections. Even sober-minded Iraqis have begun to look back at the days of Saddam Hussein with nostalgia.

Perhaps they weren't free then, but at least there was more security. Quite a few people miss the presence of a "strongman," without noticing that that's not really consistent with democracy. And without knowing where the strongman is to come from.

But even those who are frustrated would not want to see the old strongman back. Saddam is dragging out the trial at which he is being made to answer for the killing of Shiite villagers. No-one knows how long the trial will last. They only know it won't get them out of their current misery.

Nor would a US withdrawal. On the contrary: the country would sink even further into chaos. And as a result, each group seems now to be concentrating on protecting its own interests. The Shiites are trying to get more autonomy for their oil-rich south of the country, the Kurds respond with a demand for more independence for their already almost autonomous north.

Only the Sunnis remain, and they are likely to end up empty-handed in this issue, as they are ending up empty-handed in the division of political power. They cannot regain the power they used to have, but they can make having power in Iraq into a fairly bitter experience.

Three years since the American invasion, Iraq is suffering from more problems than ever. And Iyad Allawi's gloomy view of the future is anything other than mere pessimism.

Peter Philipp

Translated from the German by Michael Lawton

Qantara.de

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