How to win against Erdogan's AKP?

While Turkey's opposition has been in deadlock since losing the elections, many of its supporters are suffering from post-election stress. As Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling AKP turn their attentions to the 2024 local elections, their rivals remain preoccupied with infighting. Ayse Karabat reports from Istanbul

By Ayşe Karabat

"Our youth, our lives, our dreams, our future are over" says a tweet posted on 28 May, the day of the presidential run-off in Turkey, which was won by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since then, disappointment among opposition supporters, who form more or less half the population, has turned into what some experts are calling "post-election stress disorder".

Political scientist Mete Kaan Kaynar describes the opposition voters' mood as "political trauma": hopes for political change ran extremely high prior to the elections, deepening supporters' disappointment following their candidate's defeat. "Unlike in Europe, elections in Turkey are almost the only medium of political participation and political parties are the hub of political action. This realisation simply increases the sense," he says.

Observers of Turkish politics agree that opposition supporters need new hope to overcome this trauma, especially with the upcoming local elections in March 2024. But Turkey's opposition has shuttered since the presidential and general elections that they all entered hoping for change ended in debacle.

Committed to a fault

There were two opposition alliances, the first one being the Nation Alliance under the leadership of presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu and the second being the Labour and Freedom Alliance, led by the pro-Kurdish Green Left Party (YSP). The second alliance also supported Kilicdaroglu in his run for the presidency.

The Nation Alliance was a broad coalition of six parties. The two main parties of this alliance were Kilicdaroglu's social democrat Republican People's Party (CHP) and the secular nationalist Good (IYI) Party, led by Meral Aksener. The other component of this alliance was the moderately religious Felicity Party and three centre right-wing parties, the Democrat Party, the Future Party and Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA).

CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu gives a press conference (image: picture-alliance) — Sticking to his guns: according to a survey held in July 2023, more than 60 percent of those who voted for CHP leader and opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu now want him to resign, something Kilicdaroglu refuses to consider. On the contrary, he has repeatedly said he will take responsibility for leading his party and the opposition in the 2024 local elections

Kilicdaroglu received 48 percent of the vote in the presidential run-off in May, but, according to a recent survey held in July, over 60 percent of his voters want him to resign, something Kilicdaroglu refuses to consider. On the contrary, he has repeatedly said he will take responsibility for leading his party and the opposition in the 2024 local elections.

Erdogan is already seeking to take back Istanbul, run by the CHP's Ekrem Imamoglu.

Can unity be restored for the local elections?

Imamoglu was elected as mayor in 2019 with the support of the other opposition parties. At the time, the opposition also took control of other major cities, such as the capital Ankara. But now opposition parties are declaring that they will run with their own candidates in the local elections.

The Green Left Party has officially declared its intention in this respect. This has pleased the Good Party and some within the CHP, since they believe the Green Left Party's endorsement of Kilicdaroglu actually harmed the opposition, because it was used by the ruling AKP and its ally the Nationalistic Movement Party (MHP) as an opportunity to consolidate Turkish nationalist votes.

Some in the CHP have also accused the other components of the Nation Alliance of failing to mobilise their party organisations sufficiently during the elections.

They are also critical of the fact that small centre-right parties, which ran in the elections via the CHP lists, got thirty-eight seats in the 600-seat parliament. They believe this number far exceeds their actual share of the votes.

Supporters at a Kilicdaroglu rally in the run-up to the 2023 presidential elections (image: ABACA/picture-alliance) — "Our youth, our lives, our dreams, our future are over": hopes for political change ran extremely high prior to the elections, deepening supporters' disappointment following their candidate's defeat. "Unlike in Europe, elections in Turkey are almost the only medium of political participation and political parties are the hub of political action," says political scientist Mete Kaan Kaynar. "This realisation simply increases the sense of trauma"

The CHP and IYI Party have not been on good terms recently. Some CHP supporters see the IYI Party as the main reason for their defeat, because it publicly objected to Kilicdaroglu's candidacy prior to the elections, briefly quitting the alliance, and described him as "not qualified enough to win".

According to the Good Party, the results merely show that they were right all along about the inadequacy of Kilicdaroglu. In an angry speech to the party conference on 25 June, Aksener pulled out of the alliance with the CHP. She has also announced that the IYI Party will run independently in the local elections.

In a further twist, her deputy Nebi Hatipoglu has suggested that for the local elections, the Good Party should join with the ruling AKP-MHP alliance. The MHP has also invited IYI Party for a nationalist cooperation in the local elections. Officially, however, the Good Party's leadership continues to deny any possibility of acting together with the ruling alliance.

Right idea, wrong candidate?

Despite these huge cracks in the opposition alliance, Kilicdaroglu has said that forming an alliance with right-wing parties was a wise idea to unseat the government. Some analysts like Osman Sert, research director at Ankara Institute, agree that the idea of united opposition was the right strategy, but that Kilicdaroglu's candidacy was wrong.

"He was unable to convince the masses that he could bring about change. He failed to gain their trust," Sert said in interview with Qantara.de. According to him, the only way to change the current course of Turkish politics is to change its actors.

Mayor of Istanbul and great hope of the Turkish opposition Ekrem Imamoglu (image: BELGA/dpa/picture-alliance) — More hope of 'transformation' with Imamoglu? Osman Sert, research director at Ankara Institute, is convinced that the idea of united opposition was the right strategy, but that Kilicdaroglu's candidacy was wrong. "He was unable to convince the masses that he could bring about change. He failed to gain their trust," says Sert. The only way to change the current course of Turkish politics is to change its actors, he adds. Some CHP politicians agree. Discussions within the party centre around replacing Kilicdaroglu with Ekrem Imamoglu, long touted as the opposition's 'great hope'

Some CHP politicians agree. Discussions within the party centre around replacing Kilicdaroglu with Imamoglu, who initiated a movement within the party with the motto of "transformation". Imamoglu's own utterances on the subject have so far remained deliberately vague.

And he faces his own dilemma. Imamoglu has the chance of being re-elected as mayor of Istanbul; however, were he to become a candidate for the CHP leadership and lose, he would have lost both. Fielding another candidate, the opposition might well fail to hold onto Istanbul in what promises to be a hard-fought race.

Imamoglu is the one bearing the burden of all this. If he wins Istanbul again, he will be the politician who has defeated Erdogan twice, which would boost his popularity among opposition voters. He himself is well aware of the mood among opposition voters, as he revealed in his speech on 15 August when he announced his renewed candidacy for mayor of Istanbul.

"The greatest danger facing our democracy is the growing hopelessness and lack of expectation within our nation. We must reverse this," he said.

Ayse Karabat