Silenced under the pretext of war

Since 7 October 2023, the start of the war in Israel and Gaza, and its subsequent expansion into Lebanon, tensions between Iran and Israel have been rising daily. Iran has attacked Israel at least twice with rockets and drone attacks.

The death of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau in Tehran is attributed to Israel, as are the explosions at Iranian military installations. Israel also killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and Iran's most important political and military ally in the region, in a rocket attack in Lebanon, fueling tensions further.

While the hostility between the Islamic Republic and Israel is not a new development – the destruction of Israel has been one of Iran's political and security doctrines since 1979 – an open and direct military conflict, as seen in the past twelve months, is unprecedented.

While the world's attention is focused on the geopolitical and foreign policy implications of a possible war, Iran's fragile and oppressed civil society remains largely ignored. Iranian society impressively demonstrated its strength during the "Women, Life, Freedom" protests in 2022 – and was subsequently subject to massive repression.

In recent months, the Iranian regime has significantly intensified repression at home in parallel with the increased military and political tensions with Israel. Human rights organisations report an increase in executions and a rising number of politically motivated death sentences.

All opposition branded as support for Israel

Nader Talebi, a sociologist at the Berlin Institute for Empirical Integration and Migration Research (BIM) at Humboldt University explains: "War rhetoric is ideal for an authoritarian state like Iran to justify repression. The state combines foreign policy with domestic policy and portrays critics as 'enemies from outside'. Members of the opposition are often discredited and persecuted as 'soldiers of Israel'."

Neda*, a political activist from Tehran who was imprisoned during the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, agrees with this assessment. She tells the Iran Journal: "The sentences against political activists, women's rights activists and journalists have been unusually harsh in recent months. During interrogations, reference is often made to the conflict with Israel, and any opposition to the regime is said to be support for Israel."

Talebi, sees a fundamental contradiction between the central message of the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement and Iran's current war situation: "At the centre of this movement is the concept of life. Given that the Islamic Republic is based on ideologies of death and the afterlife, focusing on life means a break with the regime. But in the shadow of a possible war, that vision of peaceful coexistence is becoming increasingly unlikely."

According to Talebi, war tensions are not only destroying hopes for a better future but also eroding the dynamism and courage of the people who filled the streets during the 2022 protests to fight for change.

"Woman, Life, Freedom" is losing global attention

The international focus has shifted. Western states are concentrating their efforts on preventing a further escalation between Iran and Israel, as a war would also have serious consequences for the West. Increasingly, the human rights situation in Iran is being relegated to the background. As Talebi points out: "The Iranian regime is using foreign policy to reduce the pressure on itself. Instead of addressing human rights violations, the international community is focusing on preventing military attacks."

The political forces that fought for change from within during the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement are increasingly losing influence. Talebi warns: "The threat of war is destroying the revolutionary momentum and replacing the belief in change from within with the power games of international actors such as Trump, Netanyahu and Macron."

Iranian civil society, which had experienced a brief period of empowerment and hope in the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, is now facing a bleak reality: the shadow of an impending war could permanently undermine confidence in change from within.

*Name changed.